Boston Red Sox: Four steps to create a dominant bullpen
With Chaim Bloom already confirming he will beef up the Red Sox bullpen this offseason, let’s explore a four-step process to give Boston a dominant bullpen.
The Boston Red Sox main weakness in the 2018 World Series run was its bullpen. They covered it up in the postseason by using starters out of the bullpen. Then, in the offseason, Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly did not return to the Red Sox. Dave Dombrowski chose not to help the depleted bullpen. Because of this neglect, the Red Sox didn’t have a chance to use starters as relievers as they didn’t make the postseason. Hopefully, Chaim Bloom will learn from Dombrowski’s 2019 failures.
Lacking a closer and quality depth, Alex Cora could use some reinforcements. There is definitely potential though – young prospects and dominant pitchers such as Darwinzon Hernandez, Josh Taylor, and Brandon Workman.
If the young bullpen stars can take the next step forward in 2020, along with additions made in the offseason, the Red Sox could have an elite bullpen. Of course, a lot would have to fall in Boston’s way to have the best bullpen, but it is not as inconceivable as you think with a few upgrades. Based on 2019 it is inconceivable, but with the right offseason transactions, it could be possible.
The Red Sox bullpen ERA in 2019 was 4.40, good for 18th in baseball. That does not replicate a World Series-winning team, although the Washington Nationals had the worst bullpen ERA in baseball (5.66) and managed to win the whole thing.
Still, a dominant bullpen can definitely help a push to the postseason as it allows teams to win close games. Notice how teams like the Yankees have such high records, a 103-win season when their Pythagorean record shows that they should’ve only won 99 games.
If the Red Sox were to alter some roles in the bullpen and sign multiple relievers, then they have a chance to have the best bullpen in MLB. Here are four steps that can lead to a dominant 2020 Red Sox bullpen.
Darwinzon Hernandez was absolutely electric in 2019. His strikeouts rate was absolutely insane – 16.9 K/9! While he did get knocked around quite a bit (4.45 ERA), his advanced metrics show a different side.
He had a 2.75 FIP, which if you compare to his 4.45 ERA, suggests he was very unlucky and perhaps his ERA is a little unjustified. No matter what the statistics say, he definitely passes the eye test.
He has a fastball nearing 98 miles per hour, and he can mow down hitters with his off-speed pitches. He struck out nearly two-thirds of the batters he faced which shows that he definitely has the potential to take over as the Red Sox closer in 2020. He could be a younger, more affordable version of Craig Kimbrel.
When Hernandez was in the minor leagues, he was used as a dominant starting pitcher. He was transferred to the bullpen when he was moved from Pawtucket to Boston. Now, with the Red Sox in need of a fifth starter to fill the vacancy left by Rick Porcello, it seems to make sense to move Hernandez back to the rotation. However, there are some negative effects by making a move like that.
One, it would expose the Red Sox bullpen. Hernandez was trusted with high leverage innings and that would increase the workload of pitchers such as Matt Barnes and Brandon Workman, both of whom need to be fresh for October.
Also, Hernandez is one of the few lefties in the Red Sox bullpen. If he were to be moved to the rotation, Josh Taylor be the lone lefty in the pen. Matching up with lefties would be critical if a postseason appearance were to occur in 2020.
Lastly, Hernandez hasn’t proved he can be a consistent bullpen piece, definitely not in a starter’s role. He struggled with control (7.7 BB/9) and his ERA reflects that. Hernandez likely needs more major-league experience (out of the bullpen) before he can even be considered to be a key part of the rotation.
As you can see, Hernandez is very important to the Red Sox bullpen and should stay there. With his potential, he surely has the ability to be one of the best late-inning relievers in baseball. Who knows, perhaps by seasons end, if Hernandez has performed up to his capabilities, then he may find himself as the 2020 closer for the Boston Red Sox.
Workman was incredulous as the 2019 closer – posting the third-best reliever ERA in the American League, 1.88. He earned his way to becoming the closer as Barnes and Ryan Brasier started the year getting the closing opportunities.
He dominated last year and it is unreasonable to believe he can replicate those numbers in 2020. Teams may be better prepared for Work next year. A weakness is that he lacked reliable control. While only allowing a 3.6 H/9, he had a 5.7 BB/9.
Being named the closer limits the clutch opportunities that Workman will receive. Transferring him to a high-leverage role could make sense for a variety of reasons.
Cora tried this strategy in 2019, primarily utilizing Barnes in that role. He got gassed from constantly facing the heart of the order and by May he was starting to get lit up. Cora’s masterplan failed in 2019.
However, this strategy could work in 2020. If Barnes, Hernandez, Workman, and possibly another arm (more on that later), would prevent one particular person to get over-worked. Also, a starting rotation that can basically only improve in 2020 will put less stress on the bullpen.
Workman may not be the most trustworthy pitcher in a high-leverage situation due to his high walk rate. If a bases-loaded situation were to arise, you don’t want a pitcher who lacks control. If Brandon can learn how to control his curveball more, then he could be a better high-leverage reliever.
Overall, Workman would not be a bad closer if he were to retain that role in 2020. But getting him in the most challenging situations could allow for the Red Sox to win more close games.
Chaim Bloom built a destructive bullpen in his time with the Tampa Bay Rays. They had the lowest bullpen ERA in baseball at 3.66. If the Red Sox have an interest in improving their bullpen, they have the right man running the show.
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If a dominant bullpen is desired, adding a middle reliever for relatively cheap could make sense. Lower end relief could include options such as Steve Cishek, Sergio Romo, or Drew Pomeranz. Pitchers like these could deepen a Red Sox bullpen that could use help.
They wouldn’t be the saviors or the closers in the bullpen, rather just depth. Pitchers like these come cheap and sometimes one works out and it is a steal of a free agent signing. For example, Pomeranz was acquired by the Brewers from the Giants for virtually nothing. He ended up posting an ERA+ 188 as a reliever in the Brewer’s bullpen.
Realistically, if a lower end pitcher such as one of the pitchers mentioned above, they would be fifth or sixth in the Red Sox pecking order.
Ultimately, the Red Sox can afford to spend a few million and a buy-low candidate who could be a steal would be an option. Bloom always had a thin budget with Tampa Bay and excelled at finding cheap players that could produce at the big leagues. Now with the Red Sox having to squeeze the most wins out of every penny they spend, Bloom has a chance to show the Red Sox why he is their man.
Workman and Barnes were used as the closers in the 2019 season and it didn’t work out too well. The Red Sox from 2019 will pass that knowledge to Bloom and he should pursue a high-end closer for the 2020 season.
High-end relievers that have closing abilities are Dellin Betances, Sean Doolittle, Daniel Hudson, Will Harris, and others.
These players will be looking for multi-year deals with AAV’s around $8 million. If payroll is cut and can be diverted to one of these bullpen arms, the Red Sox bullpen can be elite. A traditional closer can make sure that Cora can be confident when he has a lead going into the ninth inning.
Signing a traditional closer can allow other pitchers in the bullpen to pitch in high-leverage situations as explained in the Workman slide. It will take workload off of the other parts of the bullpen which was shown very clearly by Barnes in the first half of 2019.
Look at Hudson in the quest for the Nationals World Series victory. He closed out a ton of games and was elite. That shows that gaining the right relief pitcher can be pivotal and sway your odds in favor of winning a ballgame.
This move is probably the most important as the Red Sox struggled to hold leads in 2019, costing them loads of wins. If they can hold leads and eventually win close ball games, the record should increase a lot. A better bullpen can lead to a 2020 postseason berth for the Red Sox.
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If the Red Sox front office followed these steps, they have a chance to have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Two dominant arms, plus full years from Taylor and Hernandez, along with better rest for Hembree, Barnes, and Workman can lead to an amazing Red Sox 2020 bullpen.