Red Sox: Five affordable free agent starting pitcher targets
The Boston Red Sox need to add to the starting rotation this winter. They could trade for a starter, but there are also some cheaper options in free agency.
In 2019, the Boston Red Sox lineup was among the top in the majors in just about every category, but they didn’t even sniff the playoffs. That should give you an idea of just how bad the pitching was for this team. While the bullpen needs a couple more arms as well, we will be focusing on who the Red Sox should consider adding to the starting rotation.
Starting pitching was awful for the Red Sox this year. Chris Sale looked like a shell of himself after receiving a five year, $145 million extension before the season began. David Price had an injury-riddled campaign filled with inconsistencies. We do not speak of Andrew Cashner.
Nathan Eovaldi also found himself on the injured list for an extended period of time. When he was healthy he was also a disaster. Rick Porcello is going to be headed elsewhere in free agency, and his final season in Boston was arguably his worst.
Eduardo Rodríguez was the only starting pitcher for Boston who didn’t have a bad year. I hate to sound too bold here, but having one decent starter is not a winning formula.
Given the organization’s desire to cut payroll, it’s very possible that the Red Sox will be sending Price or Eovaldi out the door along with Porcello. In that case, they will need to go out and find a fourth or fifth starter on a short-term deal for a cheap price. It’s very possible that they will take a look at one of these names in free agency, at least. Odds are they can’t be any worse than what was on the mound for them in 2019.
Gio González
The first of two players on this list who started for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2019, Gio González is no longer the All-Star he was years ago. However, he is still a worthy starter as his respectable 3.50 ERA on the season would indicate. González’s most appealing trait is his ability to prevent the long ball, as his career HR/9 is 0.8 and he hasn’t exceeded 0.9 HR/9 since 2015. His 1.294 WHIP on the year isn’t amazing but not bad either.
Another plus for González is his durability. Since 2010, there have only been two seasons in which he made less than 31 starts, although one of those seasons was 2019. Still, that shouldn’t diminish the fact that over the course of his career he tends to be very reliable in terms of staying healthy.
An area of weakness for González is his tendency to walk batters. He owns a career 3.8 BB/9 and he has never gotten that number below 3.0 in a single season. This is a stat that may scare the Red Sox off, as their 3.7 BB/9 as a team was third-worst in all of baseball in 2019.
Entering the 2020 season, González will be 34 and over the course of his career, he has proven to be pretty consistent overall. You know what you are getting out of him when he takes the mound, and that is something that Red Sox fans could certainly appreciate next year.
Drew Smyly
It’s the happiest name in baseball! Drew Smyly started the 2019 season with the Texas Rangers and he was absolutely terrible for them, as he had posted an ERA of 8.42, with 11.2 H/9, 3.3 HR/9, 6.0 BB/9, and a horrific 1.909 WHIP before being released.
He would go on to sign with the Philadelphia Phillies and he was able to bounce back, improving drastically in each of those categories (4.45 ERA, 8.9 H/9, 1.9 HR/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.324 WHIP).
Smyly gets strikeouts at a decent rate, as he recorded 9.5 SO/9 in 2019 and his career average in that area is 8.8. While that sounds nice on the surface, it’s not the most telling metric when it comes to evaluating a single pitcher or a pitching staff as a whole. The Red Sox ranked second in all of baseball this year in SO/9 with 10.0, but their pitching certainly wasn’t good.
Other than for the sake of name puns there’s not a ton of upside in acquiring Smyly. While he improved in the second half of the season, those numbers still aren’t blowing anyone away. However, when you’re a team on a budget like the Red Sox are you can’t exactly be picky.
Needless to say, Smyly is not going to command a big contract. Based on his performance in 2019, he is likely going to be the cheapest option on this list. The Red Sox may be interested in kicking the tires and hoping for improvement from him in 2020, in which case… they’d be all smyles. I am not sorry.
Homer Bailey
Homer Bailey also bounced between two teams in 2019, starting the season with the Kansas City Royals and finishing it with the Oakland Athletics. Like Drew Smyly, Bailey’s play improved once he began with his new team.
In Kansas City, he had posted a 4.80 ERA, 8.9 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.8 BB/9, 8.1 S0/9, and a 1.411 WHIP. In Oakland, he improved on almost all of those metrics, but the most telling decrease was his BB/9, as he dropped that down to just 1.8 during his tenure with the Athletics.
I mentioned it earlier, but I cannot stress enough how badly the Red Sox need to improve on limiting walks in 2020. They simply could not find the strike zone consistently and it was a huge catalyst for the team’s overall regression. Bailey’s BB/9 dropping that low might be a bit of an anomaly seeing as his career average in that area is 3.0, but that’s still better than how the Red Sox did in that area this year.
Even with his career average factoring in, Bailey allowed over 2.9 BB/9 just once from 2011-2019. He’s proven he can drop that number below 3.0 on a consistent basis and that is something that may attract the Red Sox.
Bailey will turn 34 in 2020 so he might not garner a ton of interest from other clubs, but he would be a solid fit on a short term contract for Boston.
Brett Anderson
Another one who started for the Athletics this year, Brett Anderson certainly isn’t flashy but he was effective for Oakland. Anderson is a pitcher who primarily gets his outs by forcing weak contact, as his career HR/9 and SO/9 are 0.9 and 6.3, respectively. He does a good job of limiting walks as well, with a career average of 2.4 BB/9.
The downside to Anderson’s style of pitching is the amount of contact he allows. If he’s not locating his pitches well enough he will get into trouble pretty easily and allow a ton of base hits, as his 9.6 H/9 would indicate. It’s a risky way to pitch, but it can be effective depending on both the opponent and the fielders surrounding the pitcher.
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Anderson is prone to struggle against a team like the New York Yankees and the Houston Astros, both of which have great hitters almost all the way through the order. Facing a lineup such as those requires a bit of aggressiveness and willingness to try and force swings and misses which Anderson lacks. His career statistics against the current hitters on both the Yankees and Astros are not great, and that may be what prevents Boston from bringing him in.
You probably don’t want Anderson pitching against an elite offensive team, but he can provide a solid five or six innings of work more often than not depending on the matchup. He won’t allow a ton of walks but he will make the fielders work pretty hard to get outs most of the time. The Red Sox have the talent defensively to make that work, assuming they decide to take a look at him.
Jordan Lyles
Jordan Lyles is perhaps the most intriguing option on this list considering his second half of the year. He started the season with the Pittsburgh Pirates and he was not very good, posting a 5.36 ERA, 9.6 H/9, 1.7 HR/9, 3.6 BB/9, 9.8 SO/9 and a 1.470 WHIP in 17 starts before being traded to the Brewers.
In Milwaukee, he pitched extremely well, with just a 2.45 ERA, 6.6 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 8.6 SO/9, and a 1.108 WHIP.
To put that into perspective, a 2.45 ERA over the span of the entire season would have ranked third among all pitchers. A 6.6 H/9 would have ranked sixth. Lyles was in pretty good company during the second half of the season.
Unfortunately, being really good usually means a lot more when there’s a larger sample size. That stat line came in just 11 starts for the Brewers, but with that said it’s not worth completely dismissing. Lyles could be interested in taking a one year, “prove it” type of deal in an effort to showcase that he can perform like that on a regular basis. If that is the case, the Red Sox might as well jump on it if the price is right.
Lyles’ experience as both a starter and a reliever is very valuable. Plus, he is one of the only available options under the age of 30 that Boston might be able to afford.
Next. Jon Gray a potential trade target for Red Sox. dark
If Lyles proves to be a fluke it wouldn’t bite the Red Sox too badly assuming the deal isn’t expensive. However, if he pitches even remotely close to the way he did in the back half of 2019, then they could be getting a serious bargain.