Red Sox free agent pitcher Rick Porcello predicted to sign with Giants

MLB Trade Rumors released their annual list of the top 50 free agents which includes a prediction on where Red Sox right-hander Rick Porcello will sign.

The Boston Red Sox have several players hitting free agency this offseason and payroll constrictions may prevent them from retaining any of them. That includes right-handed pitcher Rick Porcello, who has been a staple of the rotation for the last five years.

If Porcello isn’t destined to stay in Boston, where might he end up? MLB Trade Rumors released their annual predictions on where the top 50 free agents will sign. Porcello is ranked No. 31 on their list and they expect him to head west while switching leagues.

MLBTR predicts that the San Francisco Giants will ink Porcello to a 1-year, $11 million deal. While Porcello may receive some multi-year offers, a 1-year “prove it” deal may be in his best interest on the heels of the worst season of his career.

The right-hander ranked dead last among qualified American League starting pitchers with a 5.52 ERA and his 1.39 WHIP placed him in the bottom-five. Porcello’s 2.3 BB/9 matched his career-high and his 7.4 K/9 was his lowest strikeout rate since he was traded to the Red Sox.

Outside of an outlier 2016 campaign when he won 22 games and captured the Cy Young award, Porcello was fairly mediocre during his five years in Boston. He produced a total of 9.4 WAR during that span, about half of which was accounted for in one stellar season. Averaging a mere 1.8 WAR per season over the course of his last contract doesn’t exactly set him up for another lucrative deal.

Porcello will aim to rebuild his value with a bounce-back year in hopes of attracting better offers next year when he can enter the market again ahead of his age-32 season.

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Moving to San Francisco’s pitcher-friendly ballpark in the lighter-hitting National League would be an ideal spot. Porcello’s 41.5 fly ball percentage was the sixth-highest among qualified starters this year and his 1.60 HR/9 was the fifth-worst, per FanGraphs. Some of those fly balls that cleared fences in the AL East will turn into long outs in the cavernous outfield of Oracle Park.

It’s also worth noting that MLBTR predicts that Madison Bumgarner will leave the Bay Area to sign with the Minnesota Twins, leaving the Giants in need of a rotation replacement. San Francisco isn’t poised to compete in 2020 but signing Porcello as a temporary stopgap for their rotation retains future payroll flexibility for when they are ready to make a leap.

Porcello isn’t close to being the ace-caliber pitcher he was paid to be with the Red Sox but he’s a reliable innings-eater, a fierce competitor and a positive clubhouse influence. He’s made at least 31 starts in nine of his 11 seasons, never fewer than 27, and tops 170 innings ever year. That type of durability has value and teams can do a lot worse for $11 million.

Unfortunately, that reasonable price tag still remains too rich for Boston’s blood. The Red Sox need to cut costs in order to avoid the luxury tax and that means settling for a bargain-basement option to replace Porcello’s rotation spot.

Porcello is a respected veteran who was part of a championship season but his time with the Red Sox has run its course. It’s possible the could take a very team-friendly deal if he’s determined to stay but Porcello will most likely be moving on.