Red Sox Rumors: White Sox emerging as favorites for J.D. Martinez if he opts-out

The Chicago White Sox are rumored to be the favorites to land J.D. Martinez is he opts-out of his deal with the Boston Red Sox.

J.D. Martinez could be changing the color of his socks if he decides to opt-out of his current deal with the Boston Red Sox.

Martinez is owed $62.5 million over the next three seasons but has the ability to opt-out and test free agency this offseason or prior to either of the final two years of his current contract. According to WEEI’s Rob Bradford, the Chicago White Sox are the consensus favorite to land Martinez if he hits the market.

The White Sox ranked 26th in the majors with a payroll slightly north of $91 million in 2019 and they currently have less than $57 million committed to next season’s roster, per Spotrac. Chicago has operated under a lean budget through its rebuilding phase but they’ve shown a willingness to spend at an above-average level with payrolls of $100+ million in the not too distant past. They have money to burn if they believe their club is ready to take the next step.

The question is whether or not the White Sox see themselves as a potential contender. They are coming off a 72-win season where they finished 28.5 games behind the division-winning Minnesota Twins and 23.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. Martinez is a great hitter but adding him doesn’t come close to making up that much ground.

Chicago has a young core highlighted by Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez. The veteran presence of Martinez would benefit the youngsters, similar to how he’s helped Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts during his time in Boston. That might be reason enough to bring in Martinez but is it enough of a reason to convince the slugger to go to Chicago? He’s 32 years old and his next contract will probably be his last lucrative deal. Is he content to wait for the kids to grow up while his prime years fade away? Chicago may need to open the checkbook to build more around its core in order to make themselves a more attractive destination.

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Complicating matters is that the Red Sox will extend Martinez a qualifying offer if he opts out. He’ll obviously reject the offer but it means any other team that wants to sign him in free agency would need to cough up a draft pick. Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel, former All-Stars on the wrong side of 30, struggled to find a new team last winter with draft pick compensation tied to their free agency. Both waited until after the June draft to find contracts for considerably less than they expected.

Martinez would arguably still be a top-tier free agent worth surrounding a draft pick for but it may dissuade some teams. His market is already limited by being primarily a designated hitter, essentially ruling out any National League teams.

Boston’s goal is to get under the luxury tax threshold next year so if Martinez does opt-out, the team will let him walk away if he’s expecting a raise. An ideal scenario would be to sign Martinez to a new deal with an extra year or two tacked on at a lower rate. It would give Martinez more guaranteed money late into his career while lowering the average annual value that counts against the luxury tax.

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If Chicago is serious about making him an offer, the dream of retaining him at a lower average annual value may crumble. Whether or not the Red Sox can afford to keep him will depend on if he prioritizes winning over cashing in with the biggest payday. With so much uncertainty regarding the market for his services, it’s possible that Martinez plays it safe by sticking with the contract he already has but growing interest from another suitor makes it less likely.

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