Red Sox Rumors: Trading Mookie Betts would be a disastrous mistake
Rumors are swirling that the Boston Red Sox will listen to offers for Mookie Betts. Trading their superstar outfielder would be an unforgivable mistake.
From the moment that Mookie Betts scampered home for the winning run in the regular-season finale, the elated feeling brought on by the walk-off victory quickly faded into despair. We’ve been privileged to watch this young outfielder develop into a superstar over the last few years but with an uncertain offseason looming, many have wondered if that thrilling end to the 2019 season is the last the Boston Red Sox will see of Betts.
Not to worry, Betts isn’t going anywhere. Not now and not for the foreseeable future. Betts is a generational talent in the prime of his career. The 2018 AL MVP is a five-tool player who can impact a game in a variety of ways. Only Mike Trout (34.9 fWAR) has been more valuable than Betts (30.7 fWAR) since 2016, according to the FanGraphs version of WAR.
A player like this doesn’t come around often so when you’re fortunate enough to find one, you do everything in your power to retain them. The Los Angeles Angels already did so by locking up Trout with the largest contract in MLB history. The Red Sox must be prepared to give Betts a deal that falls in the same stratosphere.
Payroll concerns
It’s no secret that the Red Sox intend to slash their payroll to dip under the $208 million Competitive Balance threshold in 2020. Boston has paid the luxury tax with MLB’s highest payroll in each of the last two years. The escalating nature of these punitive penalties seems to be enough to dissuade even the richest franchises in baseball from paying the tax for a third consecutive year. Ducking under the threshold for one year resets the penalties to allow more payroll flexibility moving forward.
There’s a narrative forming that Betts will be an unfortunate casualty of these payroll cuts. This is flawed logic. The Red Sox aren’t moving Betts in order to avoid paying him the massive salary he deserves, they are tightening their budget for next year in order to afford him for the long term.
Boston has about $45 million falling off their books with players hitting free agency this winter. They save even more with the $19 million they owed Pablo Sandoval this year dropping to only $5 million in the final season before they finally wash their hands of that albatross.
Most of the salary saved has already been spent on extensions for Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts plus expected raises for arbitration-eligible players. A rough estimate of the 2020 budget already has the Red Sox approaching $220 million before making any offseason transactions.
Trading Betts, who is expected to earn about $30 million in his final year of arbitration, is an obvious way to dip below the tax line with enough wiggle room to sign a cheap replacement outfielder, fifth starter and perhaps a bullpen piece. It would also be a foolish way to address the problem. There are other ways to trim the payroll without giving up your best player.
Alternative ways to trim payroll
J.D. Martinez could make the decision easier if he exercises the opt-out clause in his contract, freeing $24.75 million from the payroll. They can shave several million more if they non-tender arbitration-eligible players who provide replacement level value such as Sandy Leon, Steven Wright, and Heath Hembree while replacing them with cheaper options.
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Letting Martinez walk would certainly hurt but if the choice is between him or Betts, it’s not even close. You keep the younger player with comparable upside at the plate who also provides Gold Glove-caliber defense over the aging designated hitter. His presence in the middle of the lineup will be missed but the emergence of Bogaerts and Rafael Devers will prevent the drastic decline this offense suffered in the wake of David Ortiz‘s retirement that created the need to splurge on Martinez.
Even if Martinez doesn’t opt-out, the Red Sox should consider trading him before they take any calls on Betts. It isn’t feasible to keep both with so much money tied up in unmovable contracts in their starting rotation unless they sacrifice significant depth from their roster.
Other factors driving Betts rumors
The case for trading Betts isn’t entirely about money. It’s partially driven by an irrational fear that his refusal to sign an early extension is proof that he plans to bolt for greener pastures when he hits free agency after the 2020 season. Therefore, the Red Sox must trade him for a boatload of prospects to restock their farm system before he leaves them.
First of all, turning down an extension doesn’t mean Betts wants to leave. He’s said on several occasions that he enjoys playing in Boston. Betts is intent on waiting for free agency because he believes it’s the best way to maximize his earnings. He’s willing to bet on himself staying healthy and productive until the opportunity arrives for the market to dictate what he’s worth. It’s a risk that not all players are comfortable taking but it theoretically would be the path to the biggest payday by allowing other teams to raise the price in a bidding war. If the Red Sox are willing to pay up, Betts would welcome the chance to stay in Boston.
As for restocking their barren farm system, the Red Sox would need to temper expectations regarding the package they could get in return. Any team dealing for Betts knows he’s a rental who won’t sign an extension. They would also be responsible for paying him $30+ million next season. There aren’t many teams willing to pay that salary and give up prime prospects, limiting the trade market.
If the Red Sox keep Betts for another year and he ends up leaving in free agency, they’ll surely tender a qualifying offer, allowing them to recoup a draft pick when he signs with another team. They shouldn’t consider trading him now unless they get a prospect in return deemed more valuable than the draft pick.
Avoiding an unforgivable mistake
Ownership claims they will shell out whatever it takes to keep their superstar and that better be the truth. They’ve known this day was coming for years, giving them ample time to plan for the massive contract Betts will demand.
Boston’s payroll is clogged with a few regrettable contracts but we have to assume ownership wouldn’t have signed off on those deals if they thought it would prevent them from affording Betts. The Sale extension backfired and Nathan Eovaldi‘s contract was a clear overpay. If the Red Sox let Betts leave because those ill-fated contracts left them without the necessary funds to afford him it would be an unforgivable level of incompetence. You can pin the blame on the departed Dave Dombrowski for handing out those deals but ownership still signed off on them knowing the Betts contract situation was looming.
Trading Betts essentially means punting on competing in 2020. There’s no chance of receiving fair value in return since he’ll be treated as a rental so they wouldn’t replenish the farm system enough to set them up for the future. Any leverage they have for a potential tie-breaker in free agency negotiations would be lost by allowing him to explore playing in another market.
Next. Red Sox payroll situation. dark
The concept of trading Betts stems from the fear of potentially losing him, which isn’t a smart way to operate for a large market team that has proven willing to spend more than any team in baseball. It’s going to cost a massive amount to keep Betts in the long run but it will cost them more to let him slip away. Boston’s brass needs to figure out a way to carve out the necessary space in their budget – whatever it takes. Anything less would be an irresponsible mistake that they will regret.