Red Sox Rumors: Trading Mookie Betts would be a disastrous mistake

Payroll concerns

It’s no secret that the Red Sox intend to slash their payroll to dip under the $208 million Competitive Balance threshold in 2020. Boston has paid the luxury tax with MLB’s highest payroll in each of the last two years. The escalating nature of these punitive penalties seems to be enough to dissuade even the richest franchises in baseball from paying the tax for a third consecutive year. Ducking under the threshold for one year resets the penalties to allow more payroll flexibility moving forward.

There’s a narrative forming that Betts will be an unfortunate casualty of these payroll cuts. This is flawed logic. The Red Sox aren’t moving Betts in order to avoid paying him the massive salary he deserves, they are tightening their budget for next year in order to afford him for the long term.

Boston has about $45 million falling off their books with players hitting free agency this winter. They save even more with the $19 million they owed Pablo Sandoval this year dropping to only $5 million in the final season before they finally wash their hands of that albatross.

Most of the salary saved has already been spent on extensions for Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts plus expected raises for arbitration-eligible players. A rough estimate of the 2020 budget already has the Red Sox approaching $220 million before making any offseason transactions.

Trading Betts, who is expected to earn about $30 million in his final year of arbitration, is an obvious way to dip below the tax line with enough wiggle room to sign a cheap replacement outfielder, fifth starter and perhaps a bullpen piece. It would also be a foolish way to address the problem. There are other ways to trim the payroll without giving up your best player.