Red Sox Rumors: Craig Kimbrel may sit out 2019 season

Former Boston Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel is considering sitting out the season if he doesn’t receive an offer in free agency that meets his asking price.

We’ve been hearing all winter that Craig Kimbrel won’t be returning to the Boston Red Sox. Now it’s possible he may not pitch anywhere at all in 2019.

According to Jim Bowden of The Athletic, Kimbrel hasn’t budged from his absurdly high asking price. Since no team has come close to giving him what he wants, Kimbrel is considering sitting out the entire season and trying his luck under potentially better market conditions next year.

While most players have settled for what they can get in this market, Kimbrel is stubbornly threatening to take his ball and go home. There’s been barely a whisper of interest in the free agent closer over the last few months as teams have patiently waited for the price to drop to a more reasonable level. Kimbrel is clearly trying to create a sense of urgency to spurn them into action.

Expect those suitors to call his bluff. It would be shocking if an elite pitcher in the prime of his career actually followed through on the thereat of sitting out an entire season. There’s little to gain and so much more for Kimbrel to lose if he does.

Let’s pretend for a moment that Kimbrel is serious about sitting out the season. Then what? He’s right back in the same situation with no guarantee that teams will be any more willing to spend a year from now. He’ll be another year older by that point, further limiting what teams will offer. If his six-year demand is laughable now, how will it be viewed when he’s on the verge of turning 32?

No team has shown any interest in going as far as five years for Kimbrel. If four is the best he’s likely to get now, he’ll be lucky to get three at this time next year. Even if the average annual value is more to his liking in an improved market, it’s hard to believe he wouldn’t have been better off taking a deal that pays less now rather than missing an entire year of paychecks. A four-year, $64 million deal now looks far better than a three-year, $54 million deal a year later.

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If Kimbrel honestly believes the market will improve next year, why not take a one-year deal? At least he’d get paid in 2019 and can still test free agency again in 2020. The Red Sox may even reconsider signing him if it’s only for one year. The additional luxury tax hit would be hard to swallow but it would be worth it to have their flame-throwing closer back on board without having to commit to him long-term.

The only drawback of a one-year deal is the risk of injury. If Kimbrel were to suffer a devastating arm injury, say one that requires Tommy John surgery and knocks him out for at least a year, it would ruin his chances to cash in. The logic behind Kimbrel’s threat to sit out is that he can preserve his arm for a time when more teams are in need of his services.

Sitting out a year would improve Kimbrel’s chances of remaining healthy but it wouldn’t eliminate that risk. He would still need to stay in shape and keep throwing on the side during his year away from the game to prevent his skills from deteriorating. The chance of injury during these workouts may not be as high as pitching in games but the risk is still there.

We’re just over a month away from the start of the regular season and Kimbrel is still without a home. His claims about sitting out the season show he’s getting nervous. He’ll almost certainly pitch somewhere in 2019 but it probably won’t be for the money he wants and it’s even less likely to be in a Red Sox uniform.