Red Sox Rumors: Manny Machado deal has no bearing on Mookie Betts negotiations

Red Sox superstar Mookie Betts claims the $300 million deal that Manny Machado received in free agency has no bearing on his own contract negotiations.

Manny Machado is staying in the NL West. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported on Tuesday that the free agent infielder reached an agreement with the San Deigo Padres, while MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand added that the contract is a 10-year, $300 million deal. The massive contract is the talk of the baseball world and that conversation hasn’t been lost on Boston Red Sox star Mookie Betts, whose own free agency is looming in 2021.

Much has been made about the slow free agent market this winter. Machado and fellow free agent Bryce Harper are two of the game’s brightest young stars yet were still looking for a new home with spring training already underway.

Betts acknowledged that several free agents remain unsigned but Machado (eventually) receiving the type of deal he desired is a step in the right direction. However, he doesn’t view Machado’s deal as having any bearing on his own negotiations.

Machado’s $300 million contract is the largest ever given to a free agent in MLB history. Giancarlo Stanton‘s $325 million remains the highest total value but his contract was signed as an extension. Shouldn’t the richest contract in the history of free agency be relevant to a reigning MVP who is two years away from testing the market himself?

That depends on how you interpret his meaning.

Betts will be 28 years old when he hits free agency, two years older than Machado is now. One way to interpret Betts’ comments is that he may not expect to receive a 10-year deal just because Machado did. A reasonable explanation, although probably not what Betts had in mind.

Machado has been one of the game’s most productive players throughout his career but doesn’t quite match what Bett has done. He’s been worth 23.1 WAR over the last four seasons while Betts has produced 32.9 WAR. Machado has a career 121 OPS+ and Betts has a 134 OPS+ (in two fewer seasons). Betts is the reigning AL MVP and finished as the runner-up in 2016. Machado has never finished higher than fourth and hasn’t appeared on the ballot in either of the last two seasons. Betts is clearly the better player and should be worth more on the open market. Therefore, Machado setting a new standard for what elite position players are worth seems relevant.

On the other hand, Betts isn’t on the open market yet. If we were talking about Betts signing an extension with the Red Sox now, the Machado deal would be a starting point for negotiations. Who knows what the market will look like in two years?

Betts recognizes what his first free agent contract will mean for the rest of the league. Machado raised the bar but Betts plans to push it even higher.

"“It’s not just about me,” Betts told reporters. “The guys behind me, you want to do things for them. As players, we’re all kind of one. We play the game. You just have to kind of pass the baton to the next guy and think about their family.”"

Betts’ contract will have a trickle-down effect on the rest of the league. A record-breaking figure sets a new standard for other elite players to reach for. A team-friendly deal hinders the negotiating stance for his fellow players since other teams will point to Betts as a reason to low-ball them. Betts doesn’t want to do that. He’s been willing to bet on himself by going year-to-year through the arbitration process to maximize his potential earnings. We should expect him to approach free agency with the same mentality, which means it’s too early to gauge how his inevitable mega-deal will compare to Machado’s.

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Assuming Betts rides out the arbitration process until he hits free agency without an early extension, we’re two years away from accurately predicting what Betts will earn. Too much can change before then. As great as he was last season, taking his game to a higher level will shatter our current expectations. Next year’s free agent crop could see someone top Machado’s deal to make a more relevant benchmark for Betts. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Harper did so later this week.

The Machado deal is relevant for baseball because of the precedent it sets. If nothing else, it dispels the false narrative that teams are colluding to drive down player salaries. It took longer than we would have liked but Machado ended up with the type of deal most expected he would get when the free agency period opened. Teams may be more hesitant to jump into a bidding war but all it takes is for one club to cave into the player’s demands. Elite talent is still going to get paid.

However, it’s a bit early for Betts to be thinking about what it means for him personally if he’s dead set on waiting for free agency. All we know for certain is that when Betts does hit the market, he’s going to get paid a ridiculous amount of money – which we already knew long before Machado signed.