Red Sox Rumors: Dave Dombrowski denies interest in free agent Craig Kimbrel

Dave Dombrowski continues to claim that the Boston Red Sox aren’t spending big on a closer so where does that leave Craig Kimbrel?

The stars seem to be aligning for a reunion between the Boston Red Sox and Craig Kimbrel. Rumors are swirling that a lack of suitors for the free agent closer and a dwindling pool of alternatives for the club to consider will result in the sides eventually settling on an agreement. Everyone seems to believe this will happen. Well, everyone except for Dave Dombrowski.

The Red Sox president of baseball operations continues to stick to his story about not splurging on a free agent closer. That was Dombrowksi’s initial stance when the rumor was that Kimbrel was seeking a record-breaking deal but many believed the team would reconsider once the price dropped. Yet in an interview with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, Dombrowski once again downplayed the possibility of re-signing Kimbrel.

“Craig did a great job for us, he’s a Hall of Fame reliever,’’ Dombrowski says, “but we have not anticipated having a large expenditure for a closer.’’

The statement seems to imply that the Red Sox have moved on from Kimbrel but Dombrowski never actually says that. What he considers a “large expenditure” is open to interpretation. The 6-year, $100 million deal that Kimbrel initially asked for presumably fits the bill but obviously, no team is giving him that.

Kimbrel has reportedly lowered his asking price but he’s still seeking a contract that compares to the five-year deals Aroldis Chapman ($86 million) and Kenley Jansen ($80 million) received in recent years. Those should be considered in the large expenditure category. If that’s what it will take, expect Dombrowski to balk at handing Kimbrel that type of deal.

Is it the total value of those deals that would turn Dombrowski away or the average annual value? That’s where we may find our loophole in his statement. Boston will almost certainly be over the luxury tax again in 2019 regardless of if they sign Kimbrel, so the short-term money isn’t much of a concern. A contract in the $16-17 million per season range would be easier to stomach with a shorter commitment.

Kimbrel may be expecting at least a five-year deal because that’s what his peers received. Except both Chapman and Jansen were younger than the 30-year old Kimbrel at the time they signed their deals. Signing an elite closer still in his 20’s was part of the appeal that warranted a five-year pact. Kimbrel doesn’t have that factor in his favor. If he’s basing his worth on the precedent set by these other top-tier closers, it’s hard to see a case for him deserving more than four years. A cool free agent climate may prevent Kimbrel from getting even that many years.

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Let’s say the combination of age, current market conditions and a lack of available landing spots leaves Kimbrel’s best offer at three years, $52 million. That puts his average annual value just ahead of Chapman’s at $17.3 million but fewer years.

Is $52 million over three years really too large of an expenditure? Or perhaps Dombrowski’s comments were a negotiating ploy meant to send a message that the Red Sox won’t meet Kimbrel’s demands and are merely waiting for the price to drop in this range once he realizes his option are limited.

It’s hard to imagine the reigning champions entering the season with only the unproven options currently on the roster to handle the ninth inning. They need to add another reliable piece to this bullpen. However, it doesn’t work to Dombrowski’s advantage to publically admit that. Showing any signs of desperation to sign a proven closer only serves to give Kimbrel leverage.

Maybe Dombrowski really has no intention of spending on a closer. It’s possible that ownership is cracking down on spending to limit his options. I don’t buy it. It’s more likely that Dombrowski simply isn’t willing to tip is hand in order to stay in control of these negotiations. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s lying, it may simply be a matter of how you interpret his words. So while his statement may seem to imply Kimbrel isn’t an option, take that with a grain of salt.