Red Sox candidates for the team’s 2018 Most Valuable Player

The Boston Red Sox have many players who could become the team’s Most Valuable Player. Here is a list of the top candidates.

Awards are important to players and fans of sports.  In many instances, a player will have a fiscal incentive available for winning or finishing high in various categories. The recognition follows them throughout their career and post-career years. You will be identified as a former home run champion, batting champion, MVP, or earned run average leader.

Within a team there are awards.  Boston has established them for minor league players as an incentive and to recognize certain baseball talents in pitching, baserunning, fielding and so on. For the “Big Club,” we tend to have our favorites for recognition. Just who potentially can be the Most Valuable Player for the Red Sox? I have my own short list and they represent just who you would expect.

In the best of all baseball worlds, the choice would be argumentive at the end of the season and that would be a good thing. If all listed had the season expected that would challenge for an MVP Award, then your Boston Red Sox would be sitting in Red Barber’s famous “Cat Bird Seat.”

The obvious favorite in any Red Sox team MVP discussion is Mookie Betts.  He came close to league MVP in 2016 when analytics beat out common sense and Mike Trout walked off with the award. And that means Betts may again be in the running for the league award, but as far as the team then Betts has it all.

A legitimate five-tool player who excels on defense with a strong and accurate arm playing one of the most difficult right fields every devised. How good is he? For me, he now exceeds even Dwight Evans. Gold Glove or metrics Betts is in a realm defensively where everyone else vies for second place.  Then there is his offense.

In 2017 Betts had an “off” year hitting just .264 but other aspects of his offense showed minimal erosion from what will be become his standard – 2016. Betts still drove in over triple digits (102 RBI) and scored 101 runs. And the speed? Betts swiped 26 in just 29 attempts. Expect a 30/30 in 2018 with a fundamental sounder offense top to bottom.

Betts has focused on his aggressiveness at the plate, but what stands out is his 77 walks against just 79 strikeouts in 2017. Betts makes contact and contact offer opportunity. Betts had a bWAR of 6.4 and that will most certainly move up. Expect big things for the offensive catalyst of the Red Sox.

The Neverending Story for the winter months was the ongoing drama surrounding the signing of J.D. Martinez. What JDM brings to the table is impressive right-handed power with 45 home runs in just 119 games in 2017, but it gets even better.

Better is a four-year average of .302 and for comparison, Giancarlo Stanton has never broken the .300 barrier. Martinez also led all major league baseball with a .690 slugging percentage. Toss in a 1.066 OPS and 26 doubles and the power is ever-present. Will Martinez carry out this with Boston?

Health plays into any baseball equation and Martinez has had difficulties staying on the field for the full slate. Maybe spending some time at DH will help mitigate that? And DH brings us to the question of defense. Martinez has expressed a desire to have some positional time, and there is where you may have some difficulties.

Last season Martinez played 945.2 innings in the outfield – all in right field. Right in Boston is a challenge for above average defenders and Martinez is a mediocre one.  In 2017 Martinez had a -5 in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and -14.8 UZR/150 and both were an improvement over the previous season.

If the Red Sox win the division for a third straight year and Martinez is the catalyst his MVP chances dramatically improve. Hitting tends to blank out defensive shortcomings unless it is a Butch Hobson or Dick Stuart.  Martinez is certainly not in that category.

Will added pounds make Andrew Benintendi pound out more homers? In his rookie 2017 season, Benintendi hit 20 home runs, had 90 RBI and hit .271. Will Benintendi improve on that average? One deficiency is .232 against lefties and jumping that up could get Benintendi to the .300 plateau.

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Benintendi – like Betts – has excellent speed and stole 20 bases in 25 attempts.  Will the extra muscle impact that?  I doubt it as Benintendi concentrated on preserving that portion of his game.  Where Benintendi erodes slightly is the defensive metrics, but that is somewhat mitigated by some highlight reel catches and throws.  Benintendi posted a flat line 0.4 UZR/150 but had nine Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) playing left field.

Where will Benintendi hit? With an 82.5 contact percentage is excellent as is his 44% swing percentage. With 70 walks in 2017 and the metrics, Benintendi displays a valued quality as a hitter – patience.  Benintendi is also on the cusp of being a five-tool player. Benintendi has all the tools to be an All-Star in 2018 and beyond.

Getting a team MVP will be a task if Betts is back in full form and with Martinez now in the fold, but never say never to his sweet swing.

The next entry in the youthful parade is Rafael Devers and that should be no surprise after Devers’ debut in 2017. Certain nuggets pop up when looking at Devers such as a .342 BABIP, .198 ISO, .284 average and his sheer power to all fields. Devers can hit and at 21-years-old the upside is potentially David Ortiz like, but then comes the sour note in this refrain – fielding.

Devers plays third or does third play Devers? A -12.7 UZR/150 with 14 errors attached in just 507.2 innings.  This was not a defensive anomaly, but a historic track that has followed Devers through his short professional career. Will he improve?  If hard work is rewarded it will, but eventually, Devers baseball fate may be elsewhere on the diamond.

Hitting – especially spectacular hitting – will override defensive limitations in an MVP vote, but that is what it will take from Devers – an Ortiz like performance.  I doubt we will see that in 2018. So, Devers will be certainly lower on the odds regarding team MVP.

Can Xander Bogaerts get back on track?  Bogaerts did lead the team with a .273 average, but his 10 home runs were a disappointment. A two-time Silver Slugger Award winner at a key position (shortstop) can always be a factor.  If Bogaerts improves defensively and gets the power back, he can contend.

This is an even number year, so Hanley Ramirez should have a productive 2018. Will it be 30+ home runs and 100+ RBI? Hanley needs the at-bats to have an option kick in and that will be a challenge unless his hitting and hitting with power forces him in the lineup on a regular basis.

Defensively Jackie Bradley is certainly the real deal, but glove alone will not suffice. Bradley hit just .245 and his power will not be in the range of others already mentioned.  Even matching his All-Star 2016 (26/87/.267) will not be enough.

Never count out a catcher and that means Christian Vazquez. Vazquez surprise me and just about all Red Sox followers with a .290 average.  That, however, will not cut it in the MVP rave unless Vaz morphs into Johnny Bench.

Next: Craig Kimbrel update

If you could have extrapolated Eduardo Nunez’s 2017 Red Sox statistics over an entire season, then you may have a surprise entry. A .300+ average, excellent base running and some credible power combined with a baseball jack-of-all-trades gives you an under the radar possibility.