Red Sox pitchers on the fringe of making 2018 Opening Day roster
The Red Sox are in the midst of Hot Stove Season. The player acquisition world is their oyster. However, it’s easy to forget that they don’t have to acquire players to patch every hole in their roster.
The Boston Red Sox, despite what you might believe, have questions regarding their pitching staff.
Eduardo Rodriguez had offseason knee surgery, and will miss time in 2018 as a result. The depth behind the starting rotation is iffy at best. Tyler Thornburg has yet to throw a pitch in a Red Sox uniform. Their bullpen in general, as it stands right now, is not as good as it appeared in 2017.
See what I mean about the questions facing the Red Sox pitching staff?
If the Red Sox want to be a perennial playoff contender – and give the powerhouse teams in the AL a run at the World Series – they’re going to have to solve said problems.
Since we’re in the throes of Hot Stove Season, fans and media alike tend to forget that some of these problems could be solved by players that the Red Sox already have signed to contracts.
This piece is akin to what I did with Red Sox position players knocking on the door of the Major Leagues. I’ll try to convince you – through the power of statistics – that free agency or trades aren’t the best solution to every problem or hole regarding the pitching staff.
So, without further ado, I made a list.
SOURCES: Baseball-reference dot com, MLB dot com
STEVEN WRIGHT; RIGHT HANDED STARTER
2017 in MLB: 1-3, 8.25 ERA, 24 IP, 13/5 K/BB Ratio, 1.88 WHIP, .377 BAA
Much like Marco Hernandez, I completely forgot there even was a 2017 for Steven Wright.
Wright pitched to extremely poor numbers in 2017, despite his unforeseen success in 2016. In 24 IP, the knuckleballer allowed 9 homers to opposing hitters, nearly matching his 2016 total in a fraction of the time (12 HR in 156.2 IP in 2016.) Injury seemed to be the reason for under-performance, and in May Wright was placed on the 10-day DL for a strain in his left knee. That knee required season-ending surgery, and Wright was subsequently moved to the 60-day DL.
It’s easy to write off 2017 as a bump in the road for Wright. Hell, he was the Red Sox No.2 starter behind Price in 2016. There has to be SOMETHING left, right? The simple answer to that question is “yeah, sure.” The complex answer is that his success is extremely difficult to project. Regardless of past performance, the nature of the knuckleball pitcher is the same as the nature of the pitch they throw. He could return to form and pitch like he did in 2016. Or he could start 32 games, and every one of them could be that one game Tim Wakefield gave up 6 home runs but still came away with a win. You just don’t know what you’re getting from a knuckleballer.
But, if Wright can pitch well in camp, he will be the No.5 starter on Opening Day. Which is good, because he’s a lot of fun to watch.
VERDICT: Starts 2018 in MLB
BRIAN JOHNSON; LEFT-HANDED STARTER
2017 in MLB: 2-0, 4.33 ERA, 27 IP, 21/8 K/BB Ratio, 1.48 WHIP, .283 BAA
2017 in AAA: 3-4, 3.09 ERA, 90.1 IP, 70/28 K/BB Ratio, 1.22 WHIP, .240 BAA
The southpaw made his return to Major League Baseball in 2017, albeit for a shorter time than he probably would’ve liked.
After battling anxiety that forced him to take a step back in 2016, Johnson finally showed spurts of the pitcher the Red Sox thought they were getting. In particular, his second start against Seattle stands out – a complete game, five-hit shutout in June. Everything appeared to be looking good for the big lefty, until a series of throwing-shoulder injuries threw him off course, derailing his first real stay in Boston.
Johnson pitched well in Pawtucket too, after the Red Sox demoted him for good in July. The southpaw saw a return to form, striking out batters at a high clip. He also saw his first minor-league season where a high volume of innings did not mean a high volume of walks, keeping his walk total below 30 for the first time in his career (min. 70 IP.)
The former 2012 1st-round pick out of Florida (a teammate of the previously mentioned Maddox,) should see a good situation in front of him, at the cost of a teammate no less. Eduardo Rodriguez underwent off-season knee surgery, and is not expected back for a long time. Johnson could be the perfect candidate to fill that role: a lefty whose performance last season merited a full-time call up. That’s not to say the Red Sox will just hand Johsnson the No.5 starters job. He’ll have to earn it in camp.
And even if they do just hand the job to Steven Wright, they need a long reliever/spot starter, right?
VERDICT: Starts 2018 in MLB
AUSTIN MADDOX; RIGHT-HANDED RELIEVER
2017 in MLB: 0-0, 0.52 ERA, 17.1 IP, 14/2 K/BB Ratio, 0.87 WHIP, .200 BAA
2017 in AAA: 2-2, 3.50 ERA, 36 IP, 38/21 K/BB Ratio. 1.19 WHIP, .176 BAA
2017 in AA: 0-1, 1.35 ERA, 13.1 IP, 8/5 K/BB Ratio, 1.05 WHIP, .205 BAA
Austin Maddox found himself in a pretty good situation in 2017.
Maddox began the year in Double-A Portland, where he found immediate success, albeit in a limited sample size. The organization liked what they saw and assigned him to Triple-A Pawtucket. Although his ERA, WHIP and walk totals increased with the promotion, there were still positives to be found. Maddox’s ability to avoid giving up hits carried with him, along with a new found ability to strike guys out (9.5 K/9 in Triple-A.) Again, the Red Sox liked what they saw, and promoted him to the big club in June.
In a strange turn of events, Maddox saw even better success at the big league level than he did in the minor leagues in 2017. He kept his ERA and WHIP below 1.00 and even struck guys out at a decent rate (7.36 K/9.) The Red Sox 2012 3rd-round pick out of Florida managed to pitch well enough to earn a spot on the playoff roster.
Under those circumstances, the 26-year old’s job should be relatively secure in 2018. Furthermore, I think Maddox should see an increased role with the Red Sox next season. While his major league contributions came in a small sample size, they were – as I’ve said – very good contributions. Moreover, Maddox out-pitched the likes of Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree down the stretch. And with both Maddox and Brandon Workman at the team’s disposal, I’d much rather see the latter combination make the team than the former.
VERDICT: Starts 2018 in MLB in bullpen
WILLIAMS JEREZ; LEFT-HANDED RELIEVER
2017 in AA: 2-0, 3.16 ERA, 51.1 IP, 47/17 K/BB Ratio, 1.31 WHIP, .258 BAA
2017 in AAA: 0-2, 3.75 ERA, 12 IP, 10/6 K/BB Ratio, 1.25 WHIP, .209 BAA
Williams Jerez is not a name you are expected to know off the top of your head. I’ll admit, until I sat down to write this, I didn’t completely recognize the name.
A former 2nd-round pick in 2011, Jerez was invited to camp each of the last two seasons, but was ultimately returned to Double-A Portland in both instances. The lefty’s luck seems to have turned around for 2018, as his contract was selected by the Red Sox earlier this month. This move could serve one of two purposes. The Red Sox very well could like Jerez enough to look to add him to the roster for 2018. On the other hand, it could serve as protection for Jerez from the Rule-5 Draft. Either way, the move shows the Red Sox have confidence in the southpaw.
In time split between Double-A and Triple-A, Jerez pitched well. He accumulated a 3.27 ERA across both levels, showing an ability to pitch with command, surrendering only 23 walks in 63.1 IP.
If the Red Sox heed none of my advice regarding the bullpen – which is fine, I guess – then the 25-year old will enter camp in 2018 poised to compete for a job.
Fernando Abad and Robbie Ross Jr. both elected to test free agency. Two lefties who, at different times, held an important specialized role in the Red Sox bullpen over the past few years. Besides Robby Scott, the Red Sox have no other left-handed relievers. Options in that area are extremely important, in the event that a pitcher suffers an injury, or performs poorly.
Best case scenario for Jerez is he makes the team out of camp. Worst case,on the other hand, he’s the first reliever called-up in the face of injury. He gets worse case on this list.
VERDICT: Starts 2018 in Pawtucket
HECTOR VELAZQUEZ; RIGHT-HANDED PITCHER
2017 in MLB: 3-1, 2.92 ERA, 24.2 IP, 19/7 K/BB Ratio, 1.14 WHIP, .236 BAA
2017 in AAA: 8-4, 2.21 ERA, 102 IP, 79/24 K/BB Ratio, 1.00 WHIP, .213 BAA
Hector Velazquez had a weird year in 2017.
The Red Sox brought in pitchers like Velazquez and Kyle Kendrick to provide depth to what many thought would be the best Starting Rotation in Baseball.
The starting rotation struggled early. Pitchers either under-performed, or suffered injuries. So Velazquez was thrust into spot starts earlier than many thought.
Velazquez failed to follow through in his originally projected role, posting a 5.02 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 14.1 IP over three starts. The 28-year old appeared to be as lost a cause as Kendrick, which is why it was so weird that he excelled out of the bullpen. In a relatively small sample size, (10.1 IP in relief) Velazquez did not surrender a single run. Additionally, he held opposing hitters to a .121 batting average, and accrued a .068 WHIP.
The former Mexican Leaguer finds himself in a peculiar situation for 2018. If he can find a way to right the proverbial ship as a starter, he could find himself in a dogfight with Steven Wright and Brian Johnson for the No.5 starter’s job. If the trend he showed in 2017 continues, however, he’ll find himself in Pawtucket to start the year, but will be heavily considered if bullpen relief is required.
I think the latter will prevail.
VERDICT: Starts 2018 in Triple-A
HENRY OWENS; LEFT-HANDED STARTER
2017 in AAA: 4-5, 3.91 ERA, 69 IP, 72/60 K/BB Ratio, 1.70 WHIP, .224 BAA
2017 in AA: 3-6, 4.58 ERA, 57 IP, 49/55 K/BB Ratio, 1.67 WHIP, .205 BAA
Oh, how the mighty prospects have fallen.
It’s hard not to feel bad for a pitcher like Owens. He made his long awaited debut in 2015, where he saw modest success as a rookie starter. In 2016, he pitched well in Triple-A, but saw a regression at the big league level, with a walk problem rearing its ugly head. This problem didn’t go away for Owens in 2017, however, as he saw his BB/9 balloon to 8.2. The Red Sox felt it would be best to demote the southpaw to Double-A Portland, a move that would allow him to rework his mechanics, according to a report from Alex Speier of the Boston Globe from the time of the demotion. The assignment did not help the 2011 1st-round pick, however, as his walk rate continued to inflate, surrendering 55 walks in 57 IP in Double-A.
So where does this leave the 6’6” lefty moving forward? Owens’ ability to find the strike zone has diminished drastically, and he’s come nowhere close to the pitcher the Red Sox thought they had in the minors. But that doesn’t mean he should be written off entirely for 2018. Boston brought in Kyle Kendrick – a historically below replacement level pitcher – to add depth to the rotation in 2017. What’s to say Owens, an otherwise decent pitcher in the minors, could not serve that same purpose? A scrap-heap player from within, provided that he can fix his “walking people” issue.
Next: Position players on fringe of making Opening Day roster
I don’t know, just a thought.
VERDICT: Starts 2018 in Triple-A