Red Sox Free Agency Rumors: J.D. Martinez seeking $200 million deal

J.D. Martinez is expected to be a free agent target for the Boston Red Sox as the top bat on the market but his price tag may lead them to pass.

We should have known from the moment J.D. Martinez switched agents. Once the top free agent on the market tied himself to Scott Boras the news was bound to be followed by reports of staggering contract demands. As much as the Boston Red Sox could use a bat like Martinez to anchor their lineup, at what point are they forced to walk away from the negotiating table?

If the latest reports are to be believed, Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox front office may not even take a seat at that table.

ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that teams who have reached out regarding Martinez have been given the impression he is seeking a deal in the neighborhood of $200 million.

That’s a head-spinning amount of money that would exclude most teams from even considering Martinez as a free agent target. Does that include the Red Sox?

They could certainly use him given their need for power following a season in which they were last in the American League in home runs. Martinez is coming off a monster year in which he hit .303 with a 1.066 and 45 home runs in time split between the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks.

If Boston wants to add a power threat this winter without giving up both a boatload of money and assets (looking at you, Giancarlo Stanton), Martinez is their best bet.

While the report doesn’t specify the length of the deal, we can speculate that it would be in the seven or eight-year range.

An 8-year, $200 million deal would pay Martinez an average of $25 million a year, which may not be all that unreasonable for a slugger of his caliber. The issue is whether the 30-year old with a spotty injury history will hold up for a long-term deal. This massive contract would carry significant risk for a player who would be 37 years old entering the final year of the deal.

A seven-year deal at the same price tag presents less risk on the back end, although it’s offset by a less palatable average annual value of over $28.5 million. Is it worth paying a little extra per season to get out of the deal a year earlier when Martinez is in decline?

The Red Sox are already loaded in the outfield with arguably the best defensive trio in baseball. Signing Martinez wouldn’t be done with the intention of adding another outfielder so much as it would be about adding his home run power. Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi certainly aren’t going anywhere.

There have been whispers that Jackie Bradley could become expendable in the quest to add a bat. Benny would make a capable center fielder and Martinez has played left field in the past, yet the free agent slugger is a below-average defender in any outfield spot. As much as the Red Sox could use his power in the lineup, the overall upgrade to the outfield may not be as drastic as you might think when accounting for the drastic defensive drop-off at two positions.

The Diamondbacks remain a threat to retain Martinez after his torrid second half following his mid-season acquisition helped lead Arizona to the postseason. Boras is already putting pressure on the team’s ownership to pay up for his client, telling the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro that they essentially have to pay him at this point.

“You don’t sign [Zack] Greinke and not sign this guy,” Boras said. “I mean, once you drop in the pool, you’re in the water. Once you’re in the water, it’s kind of hard to say you’re not wet. It sends a message to the fan base about being competitive – all the things we talk about as a player.”

It’s the typical hard-sell from Boras that we’ve come to expect from the super-agent but that doesn’t mean it won’t work. Arizona’s run to the postseason ignited the fanbase and letting Martinez walk would certainly be a step back.

On the other hand, their wallets may not be as deep as Red Sox owner John Henry’s, so Boston could win a bidding war if they desperately want to.

A National League team like the Diamondbacks also can’t rely on the DH role to preserve an aging player with poor defensive skills, which may make them more hesitant to hand Martinez a long-term deal.

As for the AL contenders, who would pay up? The Yankees outfield is full and they remain intent to duck the luxury tax for at least next season. Cleveland may not be willing to pay Jay Bruce to stay, let alone pay potentially twice as much to add Martinez. The World Champion Astros aren’t in a position where they need to spend on the top free agent.

While Martinez is the best bat on the market, he’s hardly the only appealing option. Bruce, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas are among the other top options. Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Gomez, and Jose Bautista are cheaper options who can be found on the market. That’s without even considering the potential trade targets out there.

If the supply outweighs the demand then the market could cool on Martinez, lowering the price well below his lofty expectations. If that happens, he becomes much more appealing to the Red Sox.

Boston has a long history with Boras, who currently represents Bradley and Xander Bogaerts, as well as several former Red Sox players. They should be familiar enough with his tactics to know when he’s bluffing to drive up the price and when he’s truly digging into his demands.

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The Red Sox will certainly have their eye on Martinez this winter, so long as the price remains somewhat reasonable. They may be willing to exceed the luxury tax this year but they still have their limits. It’s hard to see them ponying up $200 million but if Boras backs off those rumored demands then we could be seeing Martinez swatting home runs over the Green Monster next spring.