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Red Sox: Is Giancarlo Stanton to Boston possible?

By Rick McNair |
MIAMI, FL - JULY 11: Giancarlo Stanton
MIAMI, FL - JULY 11: Giancarlo Stanton

Will the Boston Red Sox take part in the annual Giancarlo Stanton trade rumors? Just who do you offer? Assuming a $295 Million contract should be an offer enough.

Three certainties in life are death, taxes and Giancarlo Stanton trade rumors that surface like a bad fast food meal. Each year the 27-year-old slugger becomes a focus for shipment out of Miami to just about anywhere in baseball that wants to absorb a contract for the ages.

Stanton signed an exceptionally lucrative deal that will escalate next season.  The annual payout will increase incrementally until 2027 when Stanton will be 37-years-old. The original deal was for 13 years at $325 Million with an opt out after the 2020 season.  A potential buy out exists at the end of $10 Million. Details can be examined here for all the various intricacies of Stanton’s payday.

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The three items of concern are the opt-out provision, Stanton’s history of injury and the strong potential for eroding skills.  On the last one just consider Alex Rodriguez and now Miguel Cabrera – both are examples of a high price being paid for deteriorating ability. The risk is quite apparent since not every player ends their career as David Ortiz did. Opt-out could mean a bidding war if Stanton really starts to put 50+ out a season.

Stanton would be absolutely perfect for Boston with a devastating right-handed power. Stanton, however, has never topped 37 home runs in a season.  A look at his games played summarizes the reason – injuries that range from nagging to a possible career threatening beaning. Stanton certainly recovered and now leads the National League in home runs.

I will admit my perception of Stanton is based on his power ability, but looking at the metrics I was surprised how low Stanton was in various categories outside of home runs. Just 16th in wRC+ (135) and wOBA (.380) among his National League peers. A .290 ISO is fourth in the NL and Stanton’s 2.1 fWAR is 23rd. The Marlins have the seventh ranked offense, but Stanton has only 59 RBI.

Defensively, Stanton plays right field and the latest metrics have Station at a 0.5 UZR/150 with a -5 Defensive Runs Saved. The Red Sox already have a rather competent right fielder in Mookie Betts so that position is out and certainly no one would swap Betts for Stanton. The other options are left field and designated hitter.

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Miami would expect a bounty in return for Stanton, but the reality is that will not happen.  The contract length and injury history impact value. You would be acquiring a thunderous bat that is obviously needed, but that contract!

I would not even offer Andrew Benintendi in an even deal for Stanton. Just what it would take is certainly questionable since it will be all about the money – a potential on the table of $295 Million remaining.

Would prospects do it? I would avoid Rafael Devers in any offer – reality check is the Red Sox would be doing the Marlins a fiscal favor. This may simply be a package of borderline prospects to sooth the Marlins public image. Quite possibly Rusney Castillo and his contract would soften the fiscal blow. Or even Hanley Ramirez.

The effort is worth it and like attending a time share promotion you do not have to buy. Just assuming the contract would take some exceptional bravado, but Boston has shown a willingness to spend questionably. This, however, would take some sand and some Marlin money or assuming Boston contracts.

Next: David Price back to pitching like an ace

Personally, I would pass on Stanton. Too many negative possibilities. But with Boston you just never know.

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