Red Sox Predictions: Travis Shaw trade ultimately won’t be a mistake

Former Boston Red Sox third baseman Travis Shaw is off to a hot start, leading many to call the trade a mistake–an opinion predicated on flawed assumptions.

With the Boston Red Sox visiting the Milwaukee Brewers for a rare three-game series, there’s been only one storyline circulating the Boston media: Travis Shaw’s emergence as a force in Milwaukee and what a mistake it was to trade him this offseason.

It’s been blown out of proportion, but it started for a legitimate reason. As one could have likely predicted in March, the third basemen, and there already have been several, who have suited up for the Red Sox have been brutal.

The Red Sox are receiving a .222/.264/.333 slash line from the hot corner, resembling something from a post-rookie-year Will Middlebrooks. The .597 OPS amounts to 57% of the production that the league-average third baseman supplies his team.

The defensive side of the ball isn’t going much better. 12 errors have already come from third base alone, good for an abysmal .848 fielding percentage. Count other defensive factors like range and the result is -6 defensive runs saved at third base.

Simply put, the third base crew of Pablo Sandoval, Marco Hernandez, Josh Rutledge, Deven Marrero, Brock Holt and Steve Selsky has not been getting it done on the whole.

Now look at Travis Shaw’s 2017 and it’s easy to see why “Was the Travis Shaw trade a mistake?” headlines are popping up en masse. Slashing .265/.310/.538 with 17 extra-base hits and 25 RBIs in the heart of the homer-happy Brewers lineup, Shaw is in the midst of a legitimate resurgence.

On the surface, this looks plainly evident: if the Red Sox had Shaw’s current production slotted at third base, they would be far better off. But that’s an overly presumptuous argument to make considering the underlying factors.

How can one assume that Shaw’s production in Milwaukee would translate to Boston? That’s impossible to prove, especially when the difference in his situation is so drastic.

Park factors

The Brewers currently lead Major League Baseball in home runs, which is nothing too out of the ordinary for the team that calls Miller Park home.

Since 2013, Miller Park has ranked in the top three in terms of Fangraphs’ home run park factors. In 2015, its home run factor for right-handed hitters ranked 3^rd at 110 (league-average is 100) while its home run factor for left-handed hitters ranked 4^th in the league at 114.

Fenway Park, on the other hand, ranked 11^th for right-handed hitters at 104, and 28^th for left-handed hitters at 89. Despite what the legendary David Ortiz would lead you to believe, Fenway is where lefty power hitters go to die unless they can make the opposite-field adjustment.

Shaw is reaping the benefits of one of the most drastic stadium changes possible for a lefty slugger. He hit 16 homers in 145 games as a member of the Red Sox in 2016, and currently sits at seven through 30 games. That’s on pace for almost 34 home runs in 145 games. Think he would do that at Fenway?

Confidence boost under proper management

Why do hitters suddenly go on torrid hot streaks or run into a frigid cold spell? The bat doesn’t get any bigger or smaller; the ball isn’t coming in any different. A big part of it is confidence. When a hitter walks up to the plate expecting to succeed, he sees the ball better and overthinks himself less, and vice versa. It’s human nature – confidence generally spurs performance.

For Travis Shaw last season, some of manager John Farrell’s decisions were a drain on his confidence. Shaw recently went on the Section 10 Podcast with Jared Carrabis, Pete Blackburn and Steve Perrault and spoke candidly about how his relationship with Farrell took him out of his rhythm.

“The trade for Aaron Hill made me take a step back […] I went from playing 80 games straight to playing three, four days a week just like that. The communication wasn’t there.”

Some context is necessary here. Shaw started out the 2016 seasons like a comet, maintaining an OPS above .860 through May. Then he hit a wall in June, turning in an OPS of .586.

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The sudden downturn of production worried management enough that on July 8, they went out and acquired Aaron Hill (from the Brewers, coincidentally). However, the trade coincided with Shaw beginning to find his stroke again, as he would turn in an .818 OPS in July.

But the Hill acquisition and the implication of the lack of faith in Shaw had a clear effect on the rest of his season: Shaw would post a .542 OPS in August and a .602 OPS in September as his playing time was drastically reduced.

Now in Milwaukee, Shaw is slated as the everyday third baseman and cleanup hitter – quite the step up from competing for the everyday job with an overpaid, underachieving veteran (Sandoval) and fighting to remain as high as sixth in the order.

“I get a chance to play everyday, which is all you can ask for and a chance to hit lefties again […] That’s the thing that bothered me the most last year.”

Shaw brings up another good point here – Farrell loved take him out of the game against lefties for no reason.

In 2015, Shaw slashed .329/.353/.622 against fellow lefties over 82 at-bats. Not only did he hold his own against southpaws, he crushed them. There was no big league evidence to suggest Shaw couldn’t handle them – that is, until Farrell created it by taking away his confidence to hit them.

Not getting the regular looks at lefties, Shaw’s slash line dropped down to .187/.235/.364 against them. So far in 2017, back to an everyday role even when a lefty is on the hill, Shaw is off to a .324/.361/.588 line against southpaws. There may have been other factors at play, but it sure seems like Farrell’s obsession with the right-on-left matchup created a platoon player out of an everyday player.