Red Sox: Bold predictions that may come true in 2017
By Sean Penney
Hanley Ramirez will hit 40 home runs
The 30 homers that Ramirez piled up last year are the most he’s produced since 2008, when he set his career-high with 33. Reaching 40 would be far beyond anything he’s ever produced.
Why it could happen:
Ramirez will spend the bulk of his time this season as the designated hitter, a role he’s thrived in before. In a relatively small sample size of 142 career at-bats, Ramirez owns a .331/.381/.634 slash line that dwarfs his production when playing any other position.
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He has hit a home run every 14.2 at-bats as a DH, compared to his overall career rate of a homer every 23.4 at-bats. At his pace as a DH, he would need at least 568 at-bats to reach 40 homers, which is only slightly more than the total at-bats he received last year (549).
While Ramirez doesn’t have much of a track record as a 30+ home run hitter, keep in mind that most of his career was spent playing his home games in ballparks that were much more pitcher-friendly than Fenway. He showcased his home run prowess during his first month in a Red Sox uniform, blasting 10 homers in April 2015 before a shoulder injury sapped his power.
The 147 games that Ramirez played last season are the most he’s appeared in since 2012. That’s a significant factor that led to him reaching 30 home runs. Being the primary DH for the Red Sox will help keep him healthy and in the lineup often enough to make a run at a new career-high.
Why it won’t happen:
It’s never wise to expect that a 33-year old hitter will suddenly start doing things he’s never done before. Only eight major league hitters blasted 40+ homers last year, all but two of whom had at least one previous season where they surpassed Ramirez’ career-high of 33.
Ramirez has also been dealing with a sore shoulder this spring that kept him out of participating in the World Baseball Classic. The team is adamant that Ramirez’ shoulder only bothers him when he throws, not at the plate. He’s tied for the team lead with 3 home runs this spring, which seems to back up that assessment, yet the issue bears monitoring given that we’ve already seen a shoulder injury deprive him of his home run power before.