Pablo Sandoval will be a top-five third baseman in the American League
Determining a hierarchy of the league’s top third baseman depends on what factors you are rating them by. For the purposes of this argument, we’ll go based on the all-encompassing WAR statistic. Sandoval has been a bust so far in Boston, producing -1.1 WAR over two seasons. Why would anyone believe he’ll be among the best at his position?
Why it could happen:
While Sandoval has been a disaster since joining the Red Sox, he produced a 3.4 WAR in 2014. Last season, only six AL players who primarily played third base topped that total, so if Sandoval can get back to the level he was at during his last season with the San Francisco Giants then he’ll be right on the verge of breaking into the top five.
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Sandoval arrived to camp looking slim and motivated. He’s done everything you could ask from him this spring to prove that he’s primed for a bounce back season, hitting .362 with a 1.090 OPS. While spring stats should be taken with a grain of salt, these results are far superior to what we’ve seen from him in camp the past two years.
If Sandoval stands a realistic shot of returning to the level he was at three years ago, now it’s just a matter of another AL third baseman falling off to make room for him in that top five. Adrian Beltre posted a stellar 6.5 WAR last year, but he’ll be 38 this season. He has to show signs of decline eventually, right? Evan Longoria is coming off a 3.9 WAR season that would be difficult for Sandoval to surpass, yet the Rays third baseman posted a 3.4 WAR or less in three of the past five seasons. An injury to any of the top players at the position could potentially take them out of the running, opening the door for Sandoval.
Why it won’t happen:
Eh, did I mention he’s been below replacement level the last two years? We should expect better this year, although breaking into the top five would be a steep challenge.
The chances of one of last year’s top five falling off are about equal to the chances of a young third baseman having a breakout season to vault into that elite tier. Houston’s Alex Bregman and Minnesota’s Miguel Sano are more realistic candidates to make the leap this season.