Red Sox: Could 2017 Rafael Devers be 2013 Xander Bogaerts?

It only happens to the best prospects. There’s no shortage of risk or reward; could Rafael Devers take the expedited path to the Boston Red Sox?

Recently named the top third base prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline, as fellow BoSox Injection author Daniel Cassese wrote about, Rafael Devers is not expected to make his major league debut with the Boston Red Sox in 2017.

Just 20 years old, the raw slugger put the wraps on his first season in High-A ball with the Salem Red Sox. Despite his age and inexperience, there’s still hope and precedent for Devers to make a late-2017 splash in the big leagues.

We saw it before—in 2013 with a young prospect named Xander Bogaerts.

Bogaerts was also 20 years old, but a few games ahead of Devers. To finish out 2012, he had been called up to play 23 games with the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs. He was tearing up the minors, slashing .307/.373/.523 in the split-season. His age and service time couldn’t hold him back from grabbing the attention of the decision-makers in Boston.

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2013 started back in Double-A for Bogaerts, playing 56 games with the Sea Dogs before getting the call to join the Triple-A Pawtucket Red Sox for a 60 game stretch. He was still hitting the cover off the ball (.297/.388/.477 slash line across the two levels), but there were some holes in his swing. He struck out 95 times in 116 games, scouts questioned if he could adjust to major-league breaking balls, and his defensive range and glove-work was seen as limited given his 6’1” frame.

Still, few players are without flaw, and Bogaerts was seen as a guy who can come up and contribute to the Red Sox at third base for their playoff push. And contribute he did, showing remarkable poise for a 20-year old rookie thrust at a new position in the middle of a playoff race.

Oct 26, 2013; St. Louis, MO, USA; Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts hits a RBI single against the St. Louis Cardinals in the 8th inning during game three of the MLB baseball World Series at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports /

Hindsight is 20-20, but it seems the Red Sox mapped out Bogaerts’ development correctly. So where does that leave Devers, and can Bogaerts act as a template for his path to the majors?

Devers’ 2016 wasn’t as impressive at the plate as Bogaerts’ 2012 was. Slashing .282/.335/.443 over 546 plate appearances, Devers by no means disappointed, but he didn’t exactly light the world on fire either. But upon further inspection, there could be legitimate merit to expediting Devers’ development.

Devers slumped to a .233 average through the first 69 games, tallying just 16 extra-base hits and 31 RBIs. But in the 62 games that followed from July 1^st on, Devers became a completely different player. His average raised over 100 points to .337, he knocked 37 extra-base hits, and drove in 44 RBIs. Yes, his first-half slump is every bit as legitimate as his second-half hot streak, but it’s certainly encouraging to see him trending up and adjusting to new and better competition.

Like Bogaerts in 2012, his strikeout tally was high – 94 over 128 games. And scouts continue to question whether or not Devers will make it as a third baseman; some profile him better as a first baseman or designated hitter.

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With similar question marks to go along with a nearly-equally impressive bat, it’s not unreasonable to see the 20-year old third baseman take the same trajectory as the 20-year old shortstop we once saw.

The major-league situation isn’t all that different, either. Bogaerts was partially able to make such a rapid ascent to Boston given the muddy third base alignment at the time. Will Middlebrooks proved unable to replicate his outstanding rookie season, and there wasn’t much depth behind him, save for a mediocre revolving door of Brock Holt, Brandon Snyder, and Pedro Ciriaco.

2016 poses much of the same risks at the hot corner. Pablo Sandoval is a shaky starting option at best, and after Travis Shaw and Yoan Moncada were sent to new homes, the only players standing between Sandoval and utter disaster are utility-men Brock Holt and Marco Hernandez. There’s a likely chance that platoon makes it through the season unscathed, but there’s also a decent chance it doesn’t.

Next: Benintendi ranked the top outfield prospect in baseball

And if it doesn’t, there are two ways to cover the hole: trade or promote. Cherington chose promotion in 2013; will Dombrowski do the same in 2017? If he does, Devers is likely the first name called.

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