Red Sox: Jackie Bradley is more than a mere hot streak
By Noah Small
While the Boston Red Sox may have questions following their recent struggles, Jackie Bradley Jr. should not be one of them.
I can already feel a chill in the air. Nothing elicits stronger memories and emotions of the fall and winter months than seeing the Patriots take the field, even in 90 plus degree heat. And finally, this Thursday we were reminded again, as Bill Belichick and his minions strode onto the grounds in preparation for the 2016 season.
But, there’s something else, a different sensation. Like when you open the oven door to take out the cookies.
Jackie Bradley Jr. is heating up, and Red Sox Nation can feel it.
The Sox need him, as their remaining schedule is painfully difficult; their only hope is in their offense and players like Bradley to carry them through.
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It’s quite remarkable, really, if you think that even coming into this season Bradley was surrounded by questions and those who doubted his place on the club. Rarely are things such as this put to rest so quickly, as after a respectable opening month of April where Bradley hit .272, he would explode into the spotlight in May by hitting .381 with 8 homers.
But, unlike last season, he hasn’t just been a flash in the pan. This isn’t last year’s Bradley, or before for that matter, this is the new and improved version where his hot streaks are hotter, and his cold streaks are well… hotter.
After totaling only 40 at-bats in the first four months of the 2015 season, Bradley would become a regular in August and go on to post a .354 average to go along with 5 long balls for the month. Unfortunately, the next month would not be so kind and he would find himself mumbling “Wake me up when September ends.”
September would prove to be the cliff most expected Bradley to fall off, and his batting average would plummet to .222 in 90 plate appearances. Furthermore, if you combine all of his at-bats in all the other months he appeared in (May, June, July, October), it would amount to a .135 average over 52 ABs.
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Needless to say, it was August and bust for Bradley in 2015. But, even that was an improvement to 2014 in which he finished with a .198 average, 1 HR, and 121 strikeouts over 384 at-bats – and 2013 was even worse.
Coming into this season Bradley was a ballplayer with only one good month in over three seasons in the big leagues. And, after his shocking performance this May it seemed to be just another hot streak spanning 30 days as he again stumbled the following month.
It was June and many began to doubt Bradley once again while given him the dreaded “streaky hitter” label after hitting a stagnant .218 for the month. But, instead of rolling over, JBJ would emerge and put up solid offensive stats like a .310 batting average and 4 bombs to date in July en-route to his first All-Star game nod.
This is an evolved Bradley, this is now the soft-spoken, .300 hitting, 20-plus bomb crushing, gold-glove defending, All-Star, JBJ. And, there are reasons this looks to be no fluke; Bradley is simply a better hitter, and as we all know the defense has always been there.
The main reason is his splits. According to espn.com, Bradley who bats lefty, has struggled mightily against right-handed pitching in recent years. In 2014 he hit .180 against righties to a .231 average against lefties, and in 2015 he hit .221 compared to .306 against southpaws.
This season he is actually hitting better against righties at .301 compared to his still very good .290 average against lefties.
Additionally, JBJ has turned into a legitimate power threat having already crushed 17 homers and on pace for nearly 25 this season. Surprisingly, as seen on fangraphs.com, Bradley’s pull percentage is nearly identical to last season at 45.5%, and his hard contact rate is only up by a few points to 37.9 percent. While his hard contact rate was just 32.1% in 2015, it had been 35% in his underwhelming 2014 season, minimizing the possible impact on his power.
Another improvement has been Bradley’s overall swinging contact percentage, now up to 77 percent. In the past two seasons it had been 71.5 and 74.9 respectively, not to mention his swinging strike rate that is also down to a career low at 10.4 percent.
JBJ has improved in almost every aspect of his offensive game this season. He has become an overall threat with the bat who can provide solid pop without relying on his hot streaks alone to pad his numbers, and combined with his gold-glove caliber defense makes Bradley a true breakout star.
Finally, if he can continue to heat up at the plate as he has over the last few weeks, he may just be the answer to some of Boston’s recent struggles on offense.