Jonathan Lucroy is one of the biggest remaining names on the trade market, but rumors of interest from the Boston Red Sox appear to be fading.
When the season opened back in April it appeared that the Boston Red Sox were stacked at the catcher position, but that abundance of riches has vanished.
The Opening Day starter behind the dish, Blake Swihart, struggled with his defensive duties and was moved to left field. If that didn’t crush his value, the ankle injury he suffered running into a wall certainly did. He is still expected to return this season, but catching no longer appears to be in his future.
The Red Sox intended to take it slow with Christian Vazquez, as he worked his way back from a lost season due to Tommy John surgery. It took him only two weeks to force his way back to the big leagues, only to be shipped right back to Pawtucket when his ineptitude at the plate proved to be more of a hindrance than his elite abilities behind it were worth.
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Sandy Leon has been the savior at the position for the Red Sox. He took the league by storm with a shocking breakout that saw his batting average hover above .400 for about the first six weeks following his promotion to the majors, but his star appears to be fading. Leon is 4-for-19 (.210) over his last six games. Whether this is merely a slump or a sign that he is trending back toward the sub-Mendoza Line hitter we saw the last two seasons is anyone’s guess, but are the Red Sox prepared to hitch their postseason aspirations on a catcher that has had six good weeks in his career?
If Leon turns out to not be the answer, Jonathan Lucroy would be the perfect solution. The Milwaukee Brewers’ All-Star catcher has been heavily rumored to be on the move before the Aug. 1 deadline and has been vocal about his desire to play for a contender. The Red Sox fit that description and are not among the team’s on Lucroy’s no-trade list.
Seems like the Red Sox should be heavily in the mix for an impact player like Lucroy, right? Well, perhaps not.
The Texas Rangers and Cleveland Indians are the American League contenders that have been tied closest to the trade rumors involving Lucroy. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted on Friday that a mystery team has shown interest, but the indications he’s getting from his sources reveal the Red Sox are not that team.
brewers have mystery team interest in lucroy. getting indication it's not red sox or mariners. #mysteryteam
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 29, 2016
It’s a bit surprising that the Red Sox aren’t being mentioned more as a landing spot for Lucroy. If Dave Dombrowski has one more big move up his sleeve, this would certainly qualify.
Lucroy is one of the best hitters in the game at his position. He’s currently hitting .300 with an .844 OPS that ranks second among qualified catchers in the majors (yes, Leon’s is higher, but he doesn’t have close to enough plate appearances to qualify and his small sample size needs to be looked at with at least a hint of skepticism). Lucroy also adds good pop, with 13 home runs, while he remains one of the best run producers at his position despite playing for a weak offensive team. Imagine the damage he could do in Fenway Park hitting in a loaded Red Sox lineup.
He’s also no slouch behind the plate either. Lucroy has always been known as a great defensive catcher capable of improving the pitching staff he works with. His 7 defensive runs saved puts him fifth in the majors among catchers and he’s thrown out an impressive 40 percent of base runners this season.
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Lucroy is one of the most valuable catchers in the game, owning a 2.7 WAR that ranks 2nd among major league catchers. He’s on pace to put up better numbers than he did in 2014, when he finished fourth in MVP voting. If the Brewers weren’t such an awful team this year, he’d garner much more attention.
Adding to his value is that Lucroy is making a mere $4 million this season and comes with a bargain $5.25 million team option for 2017. He’s not a rental and seems open to signing an extension with any team that trades for him. Since he can’t block a trade to Boston, the Red Sox would hold all the leverage in those negotiations.
The report that the Red Sox aren’t the mystery team looking at Lucroy doesn’t preclude them from jumping into the mix at some point over the next three days. The Brewers should be eager to move him since his value will never be higher and they can’t expect to contend by next year, but his price won’t be cheap with so many other teams interested. Boston won’t give up a top prospect like Yoan Moncada or Andrew Benintendi for him, but a package centered around Vazquez or Swihart, along with a second tier prospect or two might be enough.
Would that be worth it for the Red Sox? Lucroy is a better all-around catcher than anyone in this organization, but he’s only guaranteed for the next year and half. Even if an extension were to be reached, a 30-year old catcher doesn’t project as a long term solution.
If the Brewers would accept a package headlined by Vazquez or Swihart then they absolutely should make the deal. Those two young catchers can’t both be the long term solution and Swihart isn’t destined to remain in the outfield with Benintendi knocking on Fenway’s door. If they don’t believe he can still be a catcher, they should move him for a guy like Lucroy that can fill that role, giving Vazquez another year to work on his offense in the minors. Or they could move Vazquez and transition Swihart back to catcher so that he can take over once Lucroy is gone.
Either way, Lucroy would provide the Red Sox with a tremendous upgrade for this year and next at the catcher position. Leon could serve as one of the best backups in the game, allowing the team to move on from the injury-prone and under-performing Ryan Hanigan.
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The Red Sox would be a great landing spot for Lucroy. They have remained in the background of these discussions, as if they were only mentioned because they are a clear fit, not because any traction has been made on a deal. That would suggest that they aren’t currently viewed as a strong suitor, but when it comes to Dombrowski making an unexpected splash, you can never count him out.