Red Sox are clear winners in the Rick Porcello contract

The Post-Porcello Contract Market.

If Porcello’s contract was already a steal of a deal for the Red Sox (again, if you consider things as they were at the time of the agreement), its value only grew this past offseason.

Mike Leake – 5 years, $80 million (AAV = $16 million)

The 28-year-old finished the 2015 season 11-10 with a 3.70 ERA (in the National League, too).  Following a midseason trade to the Giants, he started nine games and compiled a 4.07 ERA, which, if adjusted for NL-inflation, rises to over 4.50.  Nonetheless, Leake received about the same amount of overall money from the Cardinals that Porcello received from the Red Sox, despite the fact he was a worse pitcher at the time of the contract signing and despite the fact Leake’s deal pays him through his age-33 season.

Jeff Samardzija – 5 years, $90 million (AAV = $18 million)

The Giants are paying him from his age-31-through-35 seasons, while the Red Sox are paying Porcello from his age-26-through-30 seasons, which is a distinction that cannot be overstated.  Moreover, in Samardzija’s walk year with the Chicago White Sox, he finished with a 4.96 ERA, which was the worst of his career as a starter.

One can argue that Porcello’s contract set the stage for these two, but that does not hold water considering the fact the pitchers are completely different, especially with regard to age, which was Porcello’s biggest selling point.  Although these deals are less indicative of why the Red Sox signed Porcello to a great deal, they still matter because it shows, at the very least, the foresight of Boston’s front office in predicting where the market was going to go given all the new money coming into MLB.

Of all the deals mentioned above, if you consider them at the time they were signed, there is no doubt that Porcello’s is the one I would choose to take on my team’s books.  The value of having a guy like Porcello, who was trending upward and coming off a career year, for only $80 million from his age 27-through-30 seasons is second to none and represents a steal for Ben Cherington and the Red Sox front office.  Here’s to hoping he can make the deal look even better by having a 2016 season similar to his final eight starts of the 2015 season in which he had a stat line of 57.1 IP, 58 H, 5 HR, 52 SO, 11 BB and a 3.15 era.

Next: Red Sox 25 in 25: Roenis Elias

*All statistics are courtesy of Baseball Reference

*All contract figures are courtesy of Spotrac