Sox Dodge Bullet: Darvish to Texas, but not Fielder; Yu OR Prince for you?
By Earl Nash
Red Sox fans can shout “Thank Yu!” today.
Yu Darvish’s signing with the Rangers means the Sox have dodged a Super-sized Ranger bullet, which makes it likely that Fielder and Scott Boras will ride outta’ Dodge, arrive in D.C. on their assess, accept the Nats offer, and The Prince will remain in the National League.
To the surprise of some pundits, [and my formerly-reliable source in Corpus Christi] the Rangers decided their best move was to spend $112 million for five years on a Japanese pitcher with no MLB track record, rather than pass on Darvish, get their $52 million negotiation rights’ fee refunded, and spend $154 million for seven years on an MLB-proven batting star about to enter his prime years.
Yu Darvish will collect a total of $60 million from his 6-year deal; the Nippon Ham Fighters will get to keep the posting fee from the Rangers, $52 million. The total amount paid by the Rangers adds up to $112 million.
"Only $56 million is guaranteed, and the rest can be earned through roster bonuses. He can opt out after five years if he reaches some high performance thresholds.2012: $5.5 million2013: $9.5 million2014: $10 million2015: $10 million2016: $10 million2017: $11 million"
With Fielder apparently willing to take a 7-year deal for a total of $154 million, did the Texas team make the right choice? Is six years of a starting pitcher, even an ace, worth more than seven years of one of MLB’s top three power hitters? Is a weekly dose of Darvish, worth more than the offensive impact of Prince Fielder on a daily basis?
Would Texas have been better served by spending an extra $42 for seven years of Prince Fielder, than six years of Yu Darvish?
Since Fielder has performed so well for the Milwaukee Brewers, there is no need to adjust his stats into MLB projections, but, when attempting comparisons and projections with Japanese league players, much can be “Lost in Translation.”
Dan Szymborski, creator of the ZiPS projection system, explained this after the rights to Darvish were won:
“Japan’s professional league is a very high level of play, somewhere between Triple-A and the majors, but there’s still a lot we don’t know about how Japanese pitchers will fare in MLB. Going back through history, there are only 21 pitchers that had full-time jobs in Japan who went on to pitch 50 innings in the majors. That’s the extent of our knowledge of how Japanese pitchers fare in the majors.”
By Szymborski’s calcutions, this is what Texas may expect from Darvish in 2012:
IP ERA K/9 BB/9 WAR W-L
194 3.62 7.8 2.1 4.5 13-7
This IS what Texas got in 2011 from C. J. Wilson:
IP ERA K/9 BB/9 WAR W-L
223 2.94 8.3 3.0 5.0 16-7
[NOTE: At 16-8 with 2.16 ERA, Zack Greinke won the Cy Young award.]
So, compared to Wilson, did Texas get a good deal with Darvish?
2011 Wilson $7 million = $ 437,500 per win
2012 Darvish $12 million = $ 750,000 per win
Will Darvish hold, or improve, his WAR rating, during his 6-year contract?
These are Szymborski’s projections for STANDARD 4.5 WAR rated starters’ values by year:
2012: 4.5
2013: 4.5
2014: 4.2
2015: 3.7
2016: 3.0
Q: Does any MLB team have a starter who pitched in Japan recently?
Yes! And the pitcher was there competing against Darvish for 2008 and 2009.
Colby Lewis of the Texas Rangers [2010 and 2011]. Darvish will average $12 million per season; Lewis has averaged $ 2.5 million per season. A comparison of the stats of both Ranger pitchers in Japan in 2008 and 2009 (combined) shows that they were close in most categories. [note Lewis is seven years older than Darvish].
K/9 W/9 HR/9
Darvish 8.8 2.1 0.45
Lewis 9.4 1.2 0.65
Applying this comparison of the two pitchers in the same league at the same time, did Texas under-pay for Lewis or over-pay for Darvish. No doubt that question will be raised by Lewis’ agent as he negotiates a new contract for 2012 and beyond.
To place Yu Darvish in the context of the talent level of current MLB pitchers
"“Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus tossed out the names of some right-handed starters to ten baseball officials [individually] and asked if they would rather have the MLB starter or Darvish…All ten took Darvish over Ricky Nolasco. For most insiders polled, Yu Darvish ranked somewhere between Matt Garza and Zack Greinke…”For most insiders polled, the choke point for just how good Yu Darvish would be occurred somewhere between Matt Garza and Zack Greinke,"
Greinke, 27, was 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA last season. He won the AL Cy Young in 2009 after going 16-8 with 2.16 ERA and 242 strikeouts and in six seasons with the Royals, was 60-67 with a 3.82 ERA. He was drafted No. 6 overall in 2002. There are two years left on the four-year, $38 million contract he signed with the Royals in January 2009. He is due $13.5 million each of the final two seasons. [http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/baseball/mlb/12/19/greinke.traded.brewers/index.html#ixzz1jr85M6xo]
Greinke’s 4-year, $38 million deal works out to an average of $9.5 million per year.
Matt Garza’s 1-year, $5.95 million deal works out to an average of $5.95 million a year.
Darvish’s 6-year, $60 million deal works out to an average of $10 million per year.
"Then again, how about these bad bargains in MLB’s Top Ten highest paid [per year]:10. Roy Oswalt – 2012 Salary $16,000,0009. A.J. Burnett – 2012 Salary $16,500,0008. Jake Peavy – 2012 Salary $17,000,0007. Carlos Zambrano – 2012 Salary $18,000,0006. Barry Zito – 2012 Salary $19,000,0004. (Tie) Roy Halladay – 2012 Salary $20,000,0004. (Tie) Justin Verlander 2012Salary $20,000,0003. Cliff Lee – 2012 Salary $21,500,0002. C.C. Sabathia – 2012 Salary $23,000,000“The pay envelope please…”1. Johan Santana – 2012 Salary $24,000,000"
How many of the above millionaires would you want over Yu Darvish in your 2012 rotation?
Q: How can you make a comparison between the value of a pitcher and a hitter? The WAR index allows you to compare “wins above replacement” statistic?
"“Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an attempt by the sabermetric community to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic. You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is pretty darn all-inclusive and provides a handy reference point. WAR basically looks at a player and asks the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a minor leaguer or someone from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” This value is expressed in a wins format, so we could say that Player X is worth 6.3 wins to their team while Player Y is only worth 3.5 wins.”[http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/]"
Prince Fielder’s chart shows his WAR stats:
Batting, Running, and Fielding Runs Above Replacement
Year
Team
PA
Bat Runs
Bsr
GIDP
ROE
TZ
ifDP
OFarm
Catch
Pos Adj
Rep
RAR
WAR
2005MIL
61
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
-1
2
2
0.2
2006MIL
640
6
-2
-2
-1
-13
-1
0
0
-10
18
-5
-0.5
2007MIL
677
45
-3
1
-2
-10
-1
0
0
-10
18
38
3.8
2008MIL
684
24
-6
-1
0
-3
-1
0
0
-11
18
20
2.1
2009MIL
710
61
-5
1
0
-4
0
0
0
-11
19
61
6.4
TOTALS
2772
136
-16
-1
-3
-29
-3
0
0
-43
75
116
12.0
http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/f/fielp001.htm
2010 2.7
2011 5.9
Total WAR score [12.0 to 2009 + 8.6 fir 2010, 2011 = 20.6, divided by years [7] = 2.9
To attempt a reasonable comparison, we will not use any of the millionaires on the highest paid list, nor will we use Matt Gaza; we will look up Cy Young Award Winner and Zack Greinke; his 8-year average WAR stat is 3.05.
[http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/g/greiz001.htm]
Using the avg. WAR scores, Greinke edges Fielder in value: 3.05 to 2.90. We now have an “equivalency” comparison of a Darvish-equivalent in Greinke and the result favors Greinke by 0.15.
But, what if Dan Szymborski, Mr. ZiPS could give us a 5-year forecast for Yu Darvish?
"“If Darvish lives up to his expectations and his projections — like ZiPS, which forecasts five seasons of sub-3.75 ERAs, 150+ strikeouts, and 4+ WAR — the investment would be a quality one for Texas. Even his middle-ground projections place him in the vicinity of excellent young pitchers like Jordan Zimmermann and Yovani Gallardo — if not a True Ace, very close to that level. [ http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/yu-darvish-set-to-become-a-ranger/]"
Let’s look at Dan Szymborski’s chart:
YR W L ERA BB K WAR
2012 13 7 3.62 46 169 4.5
2013 13 7 3.55 44 167 4.7
2014 13 7 3.52 42 163 4.6
2015 12 6 3.54 39 153 4.3
2016 11 6 3.46 38 150 4.3
[http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/19385/yu-darvishs-pitch-counts-in-japan]
Adding the 5-year WAR totals = 22.4; then 22.4 /5 = 4.48 avg WAR score.
"TAKE AWAY STATS SUMMARYAVG. ANNUAL WAR SCORE:Fielder: 2.90 [actual, 7-year sample]Greinke: 3.05 [actual, 8-year sample]Darvish: 4.48 [projected, 5-year sample]"
But wait; “Mr WAR,” Dan Szymborski, also projects a diminishing return over five years for all pitchers who start with a 4.5 rating.
YEAR STANDARD DARVISH AGE
2012: 4.5 4.5 25
2013: 4.5 4.7 26
2014: 4.2 4.6 27
2015: 3.7 4.3 28
2016: 3.0 4.3 29
[*Most stat geeks say that most starters hit their peak at age 27.]
Above we have a comparison of the ZiPS STANDARD pitcher, who begins a 5-year frame with a WAR of 4.5 and the WAR projection for Darvish for that same period [from age 25 to 29.]
Now, let’s add the actual WAR scores for Nolan Ryan from age 25 to 29…
STANDARD DARVISH RYAN AGE
1972: 4.5 4.5 6.3 25
1973: 4.5 4.7 7.9 26
1974: 4.2 4.6 6.2 27
1975: 3.7 4.3 2.6 28
1976: 3.0 4.3 3.6 29
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ryanno01-pitch.shtml
"Comparing the annual average WAR scores we get:RYAN: 5.32 [actual]DARVIS: 4.48 [projected]STANDARD: 3.98 [projected]"
If Darvish puts up a 16-7 record; the Rangers are paying $750,000 per win.
His new rotation mate, Wilson, was 16-7 and cost the team $437,500 per win.
"BOTTOM LINE QUESTIONS1. Did the Rangers overpay for Darvish?2. Would their money be better spent on Fielder than Darvish?3. Would you rather have Fielder or Darvish?Using the WAR scores as a standard,A: No.A: NoDespite the statistical projections that show that Yu Darvish will be worth the money and is a better buy than Prince Fielder, if you were the Ben Cherington, would you rather have:Six years of a #1 starter with 62 Ws [10 per year] for $112 million,ORSeven years of a MLB leading hitter [HRs, RBIs, Rs] for $154 million?"
If I am the Red Sox GM, I take Prince Fielder.
Who would you take?
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