Ask a Boston Red Sox fan who the most pleasant surprise on the team has been in 2025, and the odds are good that you'll get "Lucas Giolito" in response.
The veteran right-hander has had some ups and downs this year, but overall, he's been a very steady presence as the team's No. 3 starter in the regular season. His 3.41 ERA ranks third among all qualified Red Sox starters this year, and his 2.0 fWAR ranks just above Brayan Bello's 1.9 regular season metric.
Because of a contract incentive he reached at 140 innings pitched, Giolito is set to be a free agent this winter (assuming he declines his end of a mutual option), and his strong performance could put him in position to demand an onerous contract. Is there a middle ground that could get him back in Boston for 2026?
Giolito's postseason elbow injury also complicates things. The Red Sox expected him to be available to start Wild Card Game 3 in the Bronx, but it was not to be after the righty experienced elbow discomfort. Scans revealed no structural damage and his injury isn't serious, which bodes well for his impending free agency.
Lucas Giolito is a perfect short-term fit for newly-competitive Red Sox
The Red Sox certainly don't need Giolito back to be competitive next season. Garrett Crochet is an unholy lock to be the staff ace for the rest of this decade, and Bello has emerged as a strong Robin to his Batman.
Then, you've got a trio of high-upside southpaws in Kyle Harrison, Connelly Early, and Payton Tolle, all of whom have taken starts down the stertch for the Red Sox this year. And that doesn't even mention guys who could come back from injury (Richard Fitts, Kutter Crawford) or other top prospects nearing the majors (Luis Perales, David Sandlin).
Still, Giolito is a playoff-tested veteran who can bring stability to a rotation that has been topsy-turvy the last few years. Tanner Houck and Hunter Dobbins are likely out for most (if not all) of next year due to injuries, and relying on rookies in their first full season in the majors is a slippery slope. If Giolito and the Sox could agree to a short-term deal to bring him back for next season, he could be a valuable anchor in the back of the rotation.
There is a caveat to all of this. Giolito, who turned 31 in July, doesn't have the most sparkling track record. He missed all of 2024 with an injury, missed the entire postseason in 2025, and from 2021-23, his ERA was 4.89 in 346.0 innings. It was a half-decade ago, in 2021, that he last pitched like an ace.
His expected stats also betray his actual on-field performance this season. His xERA (5.04) and FIP (4.17) are both much higher than his actual ERA, and he rates below the 50th percentile (i.e., average) in every single highlighted statistic on Baseball Savant.
It's easy enough to mitigate all of that risk on a short-term deal. But, if Giolito tries to cash in on his 2025 results and demands anything longer than a two-year contract, the Red Sox would be right to be wary, especially with all of the young pitching talent proliferating through their farm system.
The 2026 season figures to be the first year of true, planned contention for this current Red Sox core. Having a veteran who can stabilize the back of the rotation, even at a somewhat hefty cost, is valuable insurance in case of the inexperienced arms falter or fall to injury. If Giolito finds it amenable to return to Boston on a short-term, high-AAV deal, both parties have plenty of reason to compromise at the negotiating table this offseason.