The White Sox have put their ace on the block, but the asking price isn’t cheap. Should the Red Sox pull the trigger on a Chris Sale blockbuster this winter?
The Boston Red Sox quest for another top-shelf starter has been ongoing since the departure of Jon Lester. Of course, one could easily argue that with the reigning AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello along with former AL Cy Young winner David Price, the Red Sox already have two of them for the long-term. Despite that, fans have been clamoring for more pitching firepower.
But fans aren’t the only ones excited at the prospect of another ace joining the fold. Dave Dombrowski seems to be interested in one in particular: Chicago White Sox ace Chris Sale.
Sale has been a trade candidate for over a year now, with a team-friendly contract under control until 2019, a prime age of 27, and an arsenal that can fool any hitter. A combination of all those factors is sure to spark a lot of interest, but it also warrants a king’s ransom for an asking price.
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At the 2016 trade deadline, White Sox GM Rick Hahn reportedly asked the Red Sox for outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. as a centerpiece for a potential Chris Sale deal. In the middle of a playoff push, Dombrowski elected to keep his star center fielder, but those talks could be revisited in the winter. Should he pull the trigger now? Not at the current asking price, no.
The White Sox are asking for JBJ plus a couple more youngsters close to or at the major league level. Presumably, this could include a combination of Eduardo Rodriguez, Blake Swihart, Rafael Devers, Sam Travis, among others.
But here’s the question: is Sale even worth Jackie Bradley Jr. straight up?
This may not be the popular opinion, but JBJ may be worth more to Boston than Sale would be. A two-way player who provides a rare combination of power and elite defense at the premium position of center field is hard to come by.
His .267/.349/.486 shows his unquestionable hitting ability, finally adapting to big league pitching after two years of constant offensive struggle. The biggest reason for this is that he brought down his strikeout percentage to 22.5%, putting more balls in play with a career-high hard-hit percentage of 36%.
On the defensive end, there’s little question to what Bradley Jr. can do. He racked up 11 defensive runs saved in 2016 with a 4.5 UZR to go along with a highlight reel resume as long as any player in the league.
Adding to his value is that he’s only 26 and under Boston control until 2021. He provided a 5.3 WAR in 2016, making him the third most valuable center fielder in the game behind Mike Trout and Adam Eaton. JBJ is a key cog in making Boston the owner of the best two-way outfield in the MLB.
None of this is to take away from the fact that Sale is a consensus top pitcher in the AL. His ERA has never been above 3.41 and he posts reliever-level K/9 numbers while keeping his walks down. But he essentially provides the same All-Star value that JBJ does in the rotation, at one year older and two less years of control.
And there’s always the risk that Sale comes to Boston and doesn’t perform like he did in the past. How many times has Red Sox Nation saw a big-name player crumble in Beantown? All-Stars like Carl Crawford, Pablo Sandoval, and Joel Hanrahan never found their footing. Even Porcello, Hanley Ramirez, and John Lackey had to undergo a gruesome adjusting period before performing. Hell, even Price hasn’t had the easiest time, posting the second highest ERA of his career in his first season with the Sox.
There’s no guarantee that Sale can make that transition either, especially moving from the spacious grounds of the AL Central to the closed confines of the AL East. We’ve already seen JBJ achieve success at Fenway, and his offensive adjustments make steep regression a distant possibility.
There’s no doubt that Sale is worth a lot, and whatever team ends up with him (if he is traded at all) will receive a huge boost to their starting pitching. But the Red Sox need to tamper its fervor for another ace. Adding value in one department while taking out equal value in another does very little for the team, and the addition of prospects on Boston’s side puts the trade into the negatives.
Next: Red Sox Trade Value Rankings
So Dombrowski, hold off on Sale. Let some other team overpay, and keep the core together for another playoff run in 2017.