The Boston Red Sox starting rotation has already seen its fair share of pitchers through the first month and change of the 2025 season. Eight different hurlers have taken the bump in the first inning, some of whom were unexpected heading into spring.
Nobody expected to see Sean Newcomb make the opening day rotation, and the emergence of Hunter Dobbins has also been a nice surprise. Fans have yet to see all the projected pitchers from the opening-day roster too. Kutter Crawford is still working his way back from right patellar soreness that saw him open the season on the injured list.
Looking forward to the start of August, just past the trade deadline, when everyone is hopefully healthy, who could be starting games for Boston? Of course, at that point, you have to consider a trade candidate as well.
Which five pitchers will be in the Red Sox's rotation after the trade deadline?
Garrett Crochet has been dominant to start the season. Through his first nine starts he's sporting a 1.93 ERA. The Red Sox made a splash in the offseason to acquire him via trade, then gave him the largest contract extension for a player with less than five years of service time. There is zero question he will be holding down that number one spot heading into the final stretch.
Brayan Bello came off the IL on April 22 and has been solid through his first four starts. The righty has a 2.33 ERA and a 178 ERA+ through his first 27 innings. Though walks have been a bit of a problem (he's allowed 14) and his FIP of 5.55 projects some regression, he'll likely keep his spot in the rotation after he settles in. The long-term commitment will help his case as well.
Walker Buehler signed a one-year prove-it deal with Boston in the offseason. He's looking to rediscover his Cy Young form less than a year removed from his return from his second Tommy John surgery. Early returns were mixed; he had three outings of less than three earned runs, three outings of three or more. He found himself on the IL after his shoulder didn't recover from his sixth start the way he had hoped, though luckily it was just shoulder Inflammation. The financial commitment and postseason pedigree will keep him locked into the rotation.
Lucas Giolito looked very good in his third start coming back from Tommy John surgery. It's been two strong outings to one really bad one. He apparently tweaked his arsenal following the blowup against Texas. If Giolito can maintain his May 11 form, he'll easily retain the final spot in the rotation.
Dobbins has looked great through the first month-plus of the season. It will be hard for the Red Sox to justify keeping him off the major league roster. He hasn't seemed rattled by the big leagues, and even handled being yo-yoed from Triple-A to the majors a few times. He's earned a spot in the rotation for the long term. The only reason he wouldn't be here was to manipulate his service time, something this regime hasn't shown they are afraid to do (look at Roman Anthony).
If one of those pitchers falters for a long stretch, or finds the IL, it seems more likely that Craig Breslow will make a move for another starter come the deadline. Though there are plenty of options already on the roster, if this team is in a position to make the playoffs, acquiring another starter may be a key piece for the run. Whether that's a vet with postseason experience or another ace to add to the fold, time will tell.
As far as the other starters go:
Tanner Houck seemed destined for an IL stint, and the Red Sox put him on the 15-day. This seems like something that could derail his season, even if it's just the Sox deciding they don't need to push him back with the depth they have. He hasn't looked sharp, and the Ace potential he showed in the first half of last year has all but faded. Maybe pitching coach Andrew Bailey can fix him, but it hasn't looked promising.
Before all the injuries, Crawford seemed destined for a long-relief role. He probably finds himself there once he's off the shelf, and making spot starts when other guys need rest days.
Richard Fitts showed increased velocity when pitching in short spurts in spring training. Alex Cora and Andrew Bailey may find that useful as a one-to-two-inning bullpen piece later this season.