With the trade deadline less than two months away, Aroldis Chapman has become a hot commodity. The All-Star closer has been the best reliever in baseball since he signed with the Boston Red Sox for the 2025 season. Chapman has a 1.08 ERA over 83 innings in a Red Sox uniform. Unfortunately, an elite closer is only helpful when the team is in a position to win games.
Reports out of the front office had been that Breslow was focused on adding before the deadline, but Sam Kennedy finally admitted that selling is a possibility if results don't turn around. If that reality comes true, Chapman will absolutely be on his way out the door.
The lefty flamethrower is going to require a haul of prospects to get him from Boston, but just how much can the Sox get in return? Since 2020, elite closers have netted multiple prize prospects in trades.
The trades Craig Breslow, Red Sox should be using as a framework when fielding calls for Aroldis Chapman
Two elite closers were dealt at the 2025 deadline, the first being Jhoan Duran. The Twins sent the righty to Philadelphia the day before the deadline. Duran was swapped for two top 100 prospects, Eduardo Tait and Mick Abel. Duran had two and a half years of team control at the time of the trade.
Mason Miller was the other top closer dealt. The flamethrower and LHP JP Sears were dealt for a top-three prospect in baseball, Leo De Vries, as well as the Padres No. 3, No. 13, and No. 17 prospects. Miller had four and a half years of team control when traded.
In 2024, Tanner Scott was dealt to the Padres from the Marlins. Scott had a 1.18 ERA across 45 2/3 innings at the time of the trade. The lefty, as well as RHP Bryan Hoeing, netted Miami the Padres No. 2, No. 4, No. 5, and No. 24 prospects. Scott was a rental.
In 2022, the Orioles dealt Jorge Lopez, an All-Star that season, to the Twins. He had a 1.68 ERA in almost 50 innings when dealt. A lack of prior track record before the 2022 season meant none of the four prospects the Orioles acquired were top 20 players in the Twins system. Lopez had two and a half years of control when he was traded.
In 2022, the Brewers dealt Josh Hader to the Padres. The four-time All-Star was actually in the midst of the worst season of his career. His pedigree meant the Brewers were still able to get the Padres Closer and former All-Star Taylor Rogers, the Padres No. 7 and No. 8 prospects, and another pitcher. Hader had one and a half years of control.
Red Sox's Aroldis Chapman might be the jewel in this trade deadline's crown
It becomes obvious that the Red Sox are in for a haul if they deal Chapman when looking at what the other teams were able to acquire. There's one key difference between the lefty and the rest of them: his age. All of the other pitchers traded were still young and in arbitration or earlier. Aroldis Chapman is in his age-38 season. The one thing Chapman does have going for him is his team-friendly contract.
Despite only being in Boston for one season, Chapman gave it a high discount when he resigned for a player of his caliber. He is signed for just $13 million this season, and has a mutual option for $13 million that guarantees if he pitches 40 innings this season. This should help Boston even more because any acquiring team can't claim that he is going to overload their salary situation.Â
So what can Red Sox Nation expect to see in a return? Chapman’s age and only one more season of control suggest he likely doesn't reach a Duran-level return. He has a much longer track record and a higher level of success than Scott and Lopez had at the time of their trades.Â
Chapman should net the Sox at least one low-end top 100 prospect and another player in the other team's top 10. If Breslow wants quantity over quality, then it should be three or four players in the other team's top 15.Â
Elite closers are premium assets at the trade deadline. If they decide to trade Chapman, Breslow has a chance to really retool the Sox farm system. There will likely be a bidding war for Chapman's services, and if the past is any indication, Boston could come away with a killing.Â
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