There's a reason Baseball America exists. There's a reason Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis at MLB spend months building prospect rankings, traveling to games, talking to scouts, and refining lists. The industry expertise that goes into those publications represents the closest thing to a consensus view the baseball world has on amateur talent — and when a team picks 25 to 30 spots ahead of where those consensus views place a player, you naturally start asking why.
With the 20th overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft, Boston did just that and selected Jake Schaffner — a shortstop who transferred from North Dakota State to North Carolina and had an outstanding junior season in Chapel Hill. ESPN had him ranked No. 51. MLB Pipeline had him at No. 75. Baseball America, which tracked him as one of the biggest risers in the entire class, had him at No. 98 after he jumped 68 spots from his preseason ranking of No. 166. Even after the biggest rise of anyone in the class, the industry still had him as a Day 2 prospect ... and the Red Sox took him in the middle of the first round.
Who is Boston Red Sox 2026 draft pick Jake Schaffner?
To be fair to Boston, the player himself is genuinely compelling. Schaffner hit .356 in the leadoff spot this season, racking up 96 hits, scoring a team-high 85 runs, and stealing 26 bases. He led UNC in hits, extra-base hits, runs scored and stolen bases, while committing just three errors over 59 games at shortstop. He was a Brooks Wallace Award finalist — the award given to the nation's top college shortstop and then led North Carolina to the College World Series championship game, where they lost to Oklahoma.
The contact profile is the carrying tool — and there's a real argument that it matters more than it used to. Baseball America's Draft Tracker elaborated: "Despite taking advantage of Boshamer Stadium’s right-center power alley, Schaffner’s offense centers on his plus bat-to-ball skills. He’s a selective hitter who rarely expands the zone and rarely misses when he swings. He boasted an 88% overall contact rate and 96% in-zone contact rate in 2026—both elite figures and among the best in the country. Schaffner lacks power and might never get to double-digit home runs with a wood bat. He’s a plus runner who gets out of the box quickly and has been a high-volume base stealer, going 60-for-73 (82%) in his three college seasons."
There's a growing conversation around the draft this year about teams pivoting back toward mature contact hitters — players whose low swing-and-miss rates in college correlate to lower strikeout rates as professionals, at a time when strikeouts have become the sport's most discussed offensive problem. If that's the lens Boston is applying, Schaffner has a legitimate case as the best fit for it in this range.
He also has a 60-grade running tool and is considered by some scouts to have a real chance of sticking at shortstop long-term — the arm, the hands and the instincts are all there. That's a meaningful qualifier because positional certainty at a premium position is exactly what you want clarity on when you're spending a top-20 pick.
The Questions That Linger
Draft boards aren't gospel, and teams regularly know things about a player that don't show up in prospect publications. Internal workouts, medical evaluations, advanced metrics on bat-to-ball quality — all of it can justify a reach. Maybe Schaffner lit up the Red Sox's analytical model or draft strategy in ways that public rankings couldn't capture. But an alternative is also possible: that the Red Sox fell in love with a profile they wanted — contact bat, elite speed, premier position — and you'd assume they reached an underslot deal, saving some money for later picks with higher upside.
Could the Red Sox have made a pick with more upside and a higher industry-validated ceiling? Almost certainly, on paper. Whether Schaffner's floor — a contact-first, 60-speed shortstop who doesn't strike out — proves to be the smarter long-term bet is the question only time answers. For now, it's a head-scratcher. An interesting one — but a head-scratcher nonetheless.
Add us as a preferred source on Google