Earlier this week, The Athletic's Dennis Lin reported that the San Diego Padres were interested in acquiring Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran.
Duran, like the Red Sox, has had an interesting season. Fresh of an All-Star campaign in which he led all of MLB in doubles (48) and triples (14), he came out of the gates looking diminished, posting a 110 wRC+ in March/April. That number sank further to 94 in May, coinciding with the Red Sox's own disappointing month.
At 28 years old, he's the oldest member of the team's young guard, and could very well be the final roadblock that's (inexplicably) keeping Roman Anthony in the minors. It hurts to hear after his brilliant 2024 season, but trading Duran away for MLB-ready assets is probably the right move for an underperforming team that sits in fourth in a crowded AL East.
However, the Padres, despite their gigantic need for production in left field, are the wrong team for this trade. Their prospect quality falls off significantly after their top few guys, and the only MLB starters they have worth offering are too good to be traded for Duran alone (Michael King, Dylan Cease). Instead, the Red Sox should get the Kansas City Royals on the phone as soon as possible.
Kansas City Royals profile as perfect trade partner for Red Sox's Jarren Duran
Among Royals players that have drawn at least 25 plate appearances, would you like to guess how many have been above-average hitters this season (i.e., have a wRC+ of 100 or higher)?
It's two. One, obviously, is Bobby Witt Jr. (126 wRC+), and the other is third baseman Maikel Garcia (135 wRC+). That's it. Their 32-29 record suggests they're a contender this year, but their -4 run differential, fourth-place standing in the AL Central, and status as the third-least prolific run-scoring offense in baseball suggests there's a lot of work to be done.
Sure, they just called up über prospect Jac Caglianone (who will be off limits in all trade talks), but their outfield has been an outright disaster this year. Drew Waters, Kyle Isbel, Mark Cahna, and John Rave have been varying levels of bad at the plate, and their collective fWAR from the outfield is a measly 0.9.
Duran has been worth more than that by himself (1.1 fWAR). His 103 wRC+ isn't anything to write home about, but he'll look like prime Ichiro Suzuki atop this Royals lineup. Regardless of where Kansas City would line him up in the outfield, he'd be an instant upgrade.
Of course, the Royals also have something the Red Sox want: starting pitching. Kris Bubic (1.43 ERA) has been a revelation this year and is likely off limits, but perhaps the Red Sox would be interested in a flier on someone like Michael Lorenzen (5.12 ERA) if they still fancy themselves as contenders.
Alternatively, they could take a bigger swing on Seth Lugo (3.45 ERA) or Michael Wacha (2.88 ERA), but they'd be hard to pry from a Kansas City team that prides itself on shutdown pitching. The crown jewel is Cole Ragans (4.53 ERA), though he's currently hurt and presents far too much upside to be traded for Duran and prospect fodder.
Regardless of which name(s) the parties settle on, the need and fit is there to make this trade work. The Royals need an offensively-capable outfielder, and the Red Sox need someone with a pulse to serve as Garrett Crochet's right-hand man.
Let's not overthink this one.