The Boston Red Sox have been on something like a rollercoaster in August. They entered the month on the second wind of a generational heater — they took off on a 15-game winning streak from July 3-22, then another nine-game streak from July 29-August 7. Boston then lost its next five games.
The Red Sox are presented with a golden chance to get back on the winning track against the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates. The Buccos were a serious contender in the hotly competitive National League Central for much of the season, but a slump has caused them to fall beneath the Cincinnati Reds and into last place. They've won only six of their last 21 games.
But just because Pittsburgh is in a funk doesn't mean Boston won't be tested on its visit to PNC Park. The Red Sox are scheduled to face Paul Skenes on Sunday afternoon, who is undoubtedly the Pirates' ace, but he hasn't looked like himself lately.
Skenes, who last season cruised to the National League Cy Young award victory with a 1.97 ERA, 222 ERA+, 0.948 WHIP and 2.36 FIP over 187.2 innings, has posted a 3.88 ERA over 25 starts this year. That might not sound bad at all to most baseball fans, but Skenes had a 2.86 ERA through June 20.
Red Sox playing Pirates just as Paul Skenes is struggling for the first time in his young career
Skenes has logged a 5.47 ERA over 52.2 innings since that day. He allowed just one run on five hits over five innings on August 11, but he was pulled after 65 pitches. His fastball velocity has plummeted from 98 to 96.4 miles per hour over the course of the season. Some of his pitches have decreased movement (subscription required).
The Pirates have said that Skenes is not injured, but the stark drop in velocity could show that his arm is fatigued or there's been a change in his mechanics. Whatever the issue is, the Red Sox need to take advantage of it.
Boston's offense against the Athletics and Blue Jays (before its August 13 win in Toronto) has looked more like its offense from the beginning of the season, when it couldn't string multiple hits together to plate a run or get through a game without a critical baserunning mistake. Skenes is one of the best pitchers, if not the best, in baseball when he's on his game and beating him would be a confidence boost after a brief offensive regression.
The Red Sox's standing as a Wild Card team isn't yet under threat, but they can't get complacent — the Detroit Tigers have surged up the American League and into the third Wild Card spot and six other teams are within 3.5 games of their place. Facing a slumping team and pitcher like the Pirates and Skenes is a gift for the Sox after a recent losing skid.
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