For Boston Red Sox fans tired of hearing about the club’s outfield logjam, here’s some bad news: the problem remains wholly unresolved.
Entering a pivotal offseason with too many potential outcomes to wrap one’s head around, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has his work cut out for him. Chief among Breslow’s priorities should be, once and for all, sorting out the outfield. Most people assume Jarren Duran is the odd man out and clearest trade candidate, but don’t think that a Ceddanne Rafaela trade is off the table.
Rafaela just won his first Gold Glove for his magical work in center field. He’s young (25) and still improving at the plate. These are all reasons for Boston to prioritize Rafaela over Duran, especially with Boston having already inked Ceddanne to a deal through 2032.
But wait … these are also all reasons why Rafaela’s trade value might be higher than expected, an interesting counterpoint made by MassLive’s Chris Cotillo in recent days.
Red Sox predicted to trade Ceddanne Rafaela to fix overcrowded outfield
Congratulations to Ceddanne Rafaela on his first career Gold Glove Award! pic.twitter.com/fIEKWI3qqO
— Red Sox (@RedSox) November 3, 2025
“My hot take of the winter is that the Red Sox are going to find Duran’s value to be lower than they expect and Rafaela’s to be much higher than expected across the game,” Cotillo wrote. “Therefore, headlining a trade package with Rafaela — most teams won’t balk at the six years and $48 million (plus a club option) he’s guaranteed — can’t be ruled out.”
“Trading the Gold Glover is not Plan A for the Sox but would allow a (left-to-right) outfield of Anthony, Duran (who is better in center than left) and Abreu with someone like (Kyle) Schwarber getting a full load of DH at-bats,” Cotillo added.
If the Red Sox were able to surprisingly sign Schwarber, that would push Masataka Yoshida into an outfield role. There are three other outfielders to consider, too. Kristian Campbell and Jhostynxon Garcia are lurking in Triple-A (though Campbell has played in the infield before), and a Red Sox reunion with free agent platoon artist Rob Refsnyder hasn’t been ruled out.
Yoshida, Campbell, Garcia, and Refsnyder are secondary, less urgent “issues” when it comes to Boston’s overcrowded outfield (although Yoshida was enormous for the Red Sox down the stretch and was 4-for-7 in the Wild Card series). The real problem is that Roman Anthony (first and foremost), Wilyer Abreu, Rafaela, and Duran are four starting MLB outfielders staring at three spots.
Cotillo’s take on the Duran-Rafaela trade dynamic is a sharp one. Duran’s trade value peaked in 2024 and has declined since, and even though the San Diego Padres are continually rumored to be huge fans of Duran’s, they’d have much more bargaining leverage in any talks with Breslow as compared with the 2025 trade deadline or last offseason.
It’ll be interesting to see how Breslow handles the market, and everything will depend upon what offers land on his desk for either player, of course. How do you weigh the benefits of trading the higher-valued player against keeping that player? The margin of gain is slim between both outcomes.
An important variable will be how Breslow and Boston’s staff feel about Rafaela’s bat. Do they believe he is going to overcome his strikeout issues and become a consistent hitter in his career, and soon? If so, they’d be motivated to hold onto him rather than settle for Duran, who has probably already reached his ceiling as a hitter and has struggled to stay there since doing so.