Pitching and defense win baseball games. It's one of the oldest truths in the sport, and while the analytics era has spent the better part of a decade complicating that idea with openers, bulk relievers, and not letting the starter face a line for the third time, there are moments when the old school answer is simply the right one.
This Boston Red Sox starting rotation at the All-Star break is one of those moments, and when you put a real microscope on what these four starters are doing, the comparison that keeps surfacing is one that should make Boston fans feel very good.
The 2016 Chicago Cubs finished with a staff ERA of 2.96, and all five of their starters — Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey, and Jason Hammel — finished among the top 20 in the NL in ERA that season. Hendricks led the entire National League at 2.13, Lester was right behind him at 2.44, Arrieta was coming of his historic 2015 Cy Young campaign, and the rest of the group held the line the whole way through October.
That staff was a rare breed. And while I may have taken Jason Hammel deep for my only career MLB hit (humble brag, I know), Hammel was one of the unsung heroes of that entire rotation, posting a 3.83 ERA across 30 starts and absorbing innings that allowed the bigger names at the top of the order to stay fresh deep into October. That's what real, old-school depth looks like when it actually works.
What Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez, Connelly Early, and Payton Tolle are doing right now belongs in that same conversation.
Red Sox's rotation is first since 2016 Cubs' to have five starters with ERAs below the league average
The Red Sox have won 13 STRAIGHT GAMES and 18 of their last 20 🔥🔥
— MLB Now (@MLBNow) July 20, 2026
BK digs in on the rotation fueling their remarkable turnaround to climb firmly into Postseason position! pic.twitter.com/1VdM9dfQPS
Gray has a 2.61 ERA and leads the American League in wins, firmly in Cy Young territory with every start he makes. Suarez, the $130 million offseason acquisition, has settled into a 3.15 ERA and earned Boston's lone All-Star selection from the rotation. Early and Tolle, two rookies who were never supposed to carry this kind of load in 2026, are posting 3.34 and 3.39 ERAs respectively, going out every fifth day and getting it done with a consistency that no one could have reasonably predicted at the start of the year. Every one of them is working well below the league average ERA of around 4.20 this season.
The durability angle makes the comparison feel even more legitimate. Depite Early and Suarez hitting the IL (quick strategic stints, likely to ensure long-term health) Gray has already cleared 100 innings. Suarez, Early, and Tolle are all at or above 89 innings with 16 to 18 starts apiece — and while Early had a little elbow flare up, this group has been consistent so far, taking the ball every fifth day and going deep into games. The Red Sox are doing this the old way, and it's working.
A fifth rotation piece remains the one outstanding need heading into the deadline, but the Red Sox have some internal options, as well. What's worth celebrating right now is that 80 percent of this rotation is mirroring what the 2016 Cubs did on their way to ending a 108-year championship drought.
And if the Red Sox can solidify that fifth spot — whether through a deadline acquisition, Jake Bennett developing into that full-time role, or Garrett Crochet returning healthy from the IL — Boston hasn't won a World Series since 2018, and the rotation that gets them back there might be their strength if they can make a legitimate October run.
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