Many fans and reporters were surprised that the Boston Red Sox didn't extend the qualifying offer to Lucas Giolito. Boston inked the righty to a two-year deal before the 2024 campaign, and he rebounded well with the Sox after undergoing the internal brace procedure in his first year, but not even that was enough for them to take the risk of potentially losing a draft pick.
Giolito posted a 3.41 ERA over 145 innings with the Red Sox in 2025. Now, after his resurgent season, he's a 31-year-old free agent with no lost draft pick attached. Boston's qualifying offer decision could come back to haunt it quickly.
On November 13, MLB insider Jon Heyman stated on MLB Network that the New York Yankees "like" Giolito as as free agent candidate. If they end up signing him, it would've been nice for Boston to pick up a draft pick at its greatest rival's expense.
New York's rotation is already stacked, and if Giolito can replicate his performance from 2025, it'll even be fearsome at the back. Gerrit Cole is expected to return from Tommy John surgery rehab, Carlos Rodón also had a resurgent 2025 campaign, Max Fried is a perennial All-Star and Cy Young candidate, and Cam Schlittler shut the Red Sox down in the Wild Card round. The Yankees certainly don't need another ace — they arguably have three, if Cole rebounds well — so Giolito makes sense for them as a candidate.
Yankees looking to 2025 Red Sox Lucas Giolito to add rotation depth — and he won't even cost them a draft pick
Giolito's best work came from 2019-21 with the White Sox. The righty posted a 3.47 ERA, a 1.076 WHIP, 526 strikeouts and 127 walks over 427.2 over those three seasons. He earned Cy Young Award votes in each of those years and came closest to winning in 2019 when he placed sixth (3.41 ERA, 1.064 WHIP, 228 strikeouts over 176.2 innings pitched).
The Red Sox may not have extended Giolito the qualifying offer due to concerns about his elbow. The veteran couldn't participate in Boston's brief playoff run due to elbow discomfort, which is often a harbinger of a much more serious injury in pitchers. Giolito attests that his elbow only hurt for a few days and that he isn't injured going into free agency — the Yankees could have a fully healthy Giolito on their staff if they land him this winter.
Some signs point to regression for Giolito, another reason the Sox may have been reluctant to give him the $22 million qualifying offer. He posted a 5.06 xERA, .268 xBA and a 28th-percentile strikeout rate with the Red Sox.
If Giolito signs with the Yankees, the Red Sox might wish they gave him the qualifying offer just to make their lives a little harder. At the same time, players having the qualifying offer attached to them hurts their free agent market, and Boston may not have wanted to take the risk of him accepting and sticking around another year. Either way, Giolito signing with the Yankees right after the Red Sox helped reinvigorate his career would sting, especially if they don't get a draft pick out of it.