The Boston Red Sox went into the All-Star break as the undisputed hottest team in baseball, and despite a rocky start to the second half of their season, they've earned their spot as sure-fire buyers ahead of the July 31 trade deadline.
The Red Sox's farm system is still strong, even with all of their "Big Three" prospects having made their big league debuts. But it may be hard for Boston to pull any of the starting rotation or offensive reinforcements it needs without throwing in a few big league trade chips. The Red Sox's outfield is jammed, which is where many trade speculations begin.
Jarren Duran has been among the most popular names in trade rumors this summer due to his recent MVP-caliber season and the extent of the Sox's outfield logjam. Insiders and experts have tabbed Duran among the deadline's likeliest trade candidates — ESPN's Kiley McDaniel and MLB insider Jeff Passan have placed Boston's chances of trading Duran at 25%.
Jesse Rogers of ESPN has a different perspective, and he believes the Red Sox will "[retain] the abundance of outfielders unless the club is blown away with an offer in the next 10 days." If his expectation is true, especially about Boston needing to be "blown away" by any offers, it may well end up keeping Duran.
ESPN says Red Sox will need to be 'blown away' by any trade offers to deal Jarren Duran before the deadline
The Padres are among the teams most interested in the 28-year-old, so much so that beat reporter Dennis Lin of The Athletic said they're "enamored" by Duran. Unfortunately for San Diego, its pool of prospect talent doesn't align with Boston's needs — top-100 prospects shortstop Leo De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas are believed to be off the table, and the rest of the Padres' farm system is quite weak compared to the Sox's. Duran would be a good fit for a few other contenders, but it would take quite a package to entice the Red Sox into a deal for the recent MVP candidate with three and a half more years of control on his contract.
A few members of Red Sox management have asserted that they don't need to trade from their outfield pool this year and that having a surplus of players in the same position group is a good problem to have. But no matter what the men in charge in Boston say, teams in need of outfield help may pester it about Duran until the deadline has passed.
Regardless of his decreased offensive output this season, Duran is still hitting, and his electricity on the base paths can help the Red Sox win. It certainly wouldn't be detrimental for Boston to hold onto him, but if he can help net top-tier pitching reinforcements or a power bat, it should consider a deal.