It's do-or-die for the Boston Red Sox in Game 2 of the Wild Card series. Game 1 was a disaster — while Payton Tolle was able to hold the New York Yankees to one run in his 4 ⅔ innings, it really didn't matter because the offense couldn't get anything going the entire game.
They now head into Game 2 with one thing in mind: put runs on the board. The offense will need to find something against Max Fried, and they are going to need the pitching staff to keep them in the game as best it can. Sonny Gray will take the bump for the Sox in the pivotal matchup, but he may be the wrong choice.
Over the offseason, the Red Sox made two big pitching acquisitions: Gray and Ranger Suarez. Gray was a veteran who was essentially in the last year of his deal, meant to be a mid-rotation arm. Suarez was meant to be the No. 2 behind Garrett Crochet, and his playoff excellence was supposed to help after what the Red Sox starters struggled (besides Crochet) in the Wild Card last year.
Recency bias is influencing the Red Sox's starter decision for Game 2 of the Wild Card
RANGER SUAREZ
— Bastards of Boston Baseball (@Bastards_Boston) September 28, 2026
1.48 career ERA in the month of October.
And he might not even pitch 🤦🏻♂️ https://t.co/kQmNWZKH1R
Suarez is one of the best playoff pitchers in baseball ever. His 1.48 ERA in the postseason is the sixth-lowest for any pitcher with 40 or more playoff innings pitched. He has held hitters to a .201 batting average while striking out over nine per nine innings. His numbers in the regular season are great, but the selling point was what he could do in October.
Now, of course, the regular season played a part in the decision to start Gray in Game 2. The righty was dominant all year and could finish in the top five in Cy Young voting. Gray had a 2.72 ERA this season over 169 innings. It's hard not to guarantee a pitcher who performed so well in the regular season a start in the postseason when he was so influential in getting the team there. But Suarez is on the team for this exact moment.
In a win-or-go-home scenario, it's hard not to hand the ball to the pitcher who slows his heartbeat in the playoffs. If the Sox can win this game, it will be great to have Suarez pitching Game 3, but the Red Sox need to keep themselves in the game. Gray could be the one to do it, but the track record says Suarez is the better choice.
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