In the span of just over two weeks, the Boston Red Sox have rocketed themselves into playoff contention and completely changed their trade deadline outlook. Winning 14 times in 16 games heading into the All-Star break put them just half a game out of the final Wild Card spot.
Before the red-hot stretch, fans and beat writers alike were speculating the extent of Craig Breslow's impending fire sale. Now, the question becomes: do they buy, sell, or both?
Even firmly in the playoff picture, selling off some rentals could make sense. They still have a ways to go, and the playoffs are no guarantee. At least, that's what the Seattle Mariners front office thought in 2023.
By the All-Star break in 2023, the Mariners were 45-44, in third place in the American League West, and four games back of the third Wild Card spot. They would go 10-7 headed up to the trade deadline, fall to fourth in their division, but still only find themselves 3.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. It didn't matter, though.
One day before the deadline, the Mariners traded closer Paul Sewald to the Arizona Diamondbacks for two major league hitters and one prospect, in an attempt to bolster their offense. The Mariners missed the playoffs by one game that season, and it seemed like the trade demoralized the clubhouse.
The Mariners laid the blueprint for catastrophe Red Sox, Craig Breslow must avoid
The Red Sox now find themselves in a similar position. They are now squarely in the playoff picture, but have they done enough to buy? Maybe. Could they still sell off some rentals? Absolutely. They need to be careful, though. They could trade away Aroldis Chapman or Sonny Gray, but what message would that send to the players?
The Red Sox have finally fulfilled their identity. From June 12 to the All-Star break, they had the lowest team ERA, the second lowest FIP, and were allowing the lowest hard-hit percentage. Offensively, they were 16th in team OPS and 18th in team WRC+. This is what the team was built on, elite pitching and an average offense. It's resulted in a 19-9 record in that span.
Trading away key pieces to the team's success would send the opposite message. It would look like the front office doesn't believe in the team and its chances to make the playoffs. That would hurt after the stretch they just went on.
Craig Breslow needs to tread lightly. If this team holds steady and is within a game or two of the Wild Card by the deadline, moving Chapman, Gray, or another key member of the team could do the opposite of what they want, even if they use one to make an upgrade somewhere else. Messaging matters, and this squad has dealt with a lot, they don't need to feel like they don't have the front office's support.
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