Before the Boston Red Sox's September 21 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, Alex Cora announced a change to his starting rotation in its final sprint to the postseason.
Brayan Bello and Garrett Crochet's upcoming starts have been switched — Crochet will start Boston's Wednesday game against the first place Toronto Blue Jays, and Bello will start Thursday's on six days' rest. The switch means Crochet will only be pitching on four days of rest, but Cora has a plan (subscription required).
“Give Bello a breather and keep Garrett in line for that one and hopefully for a big one,” he said, meaning the Red Sox's hopeful Wild Card berth.
Bello has struggled in a few of his recent outings. The righty earned the No. 2 starter title this year after an outstanding start, but the grind of the season seems to be setting in. Bello has posted a 3.34 ERA with 121 strikeouts and 56 walks over 161.2 innings of work.
Red Sox make risky rotation switch to give Brayan Bello extra rest, set Garrett Crochet up to open potential Wild Card series
Cracks began to show in Bello's September 1 outing against the Guardians, when he walked three batters and let up three runs on six hits over five innings. He surrendered another three runs against the Diamondbacks in his next start, but concerns really took off after his September 13 appearance against the Yankees.
Bello has owned the Red Sox's archival in the past, with a 2.35 ERA and 1.138 WHIP against them in 65 innings. New York posted four runs on five hits and worked three walks against Bello on September 13. Even if it means rushing Crochet, Bello seems to need the extra rest.
However, there's still some risk involved in this rotation switch. Crochet has well exceeded his career high in innings pitched, and exhaustion also may be setting in for the ace. He's an American League Cy Young Award frontrunner with a 2.69 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 249 strikeouts and 46 walks over 197.1 innings on the season, but he's clocked a 4.68 ERA in September.
Crochet has still been the stopper the Red Sox desperately need, he's still their most trustworthy starter and the best choice to open a playoff series. Boston largely controls its own destiny to the postseason, and it would take extraordinary stretches from the Guardians and Astros and a massive collapse from the Red Sox to eliminate them.
Swapping Crochet and Bello is a risk, but it's one the Red Sox should be willing to take, even against two first place teams in the Blue Jays and Tigers. Winning teams make bold moves, and if Crochet and Bello come through in their final regular season starts, the Wild Card series will be much easier with Boston's ace on the mound in the opener.