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Red Sox Magic Number: Yankees clinch playoff spot and here's Boston's expected fate

ByKatie Manganelli
Payton Tolle completes first Red Sox immaculate inning since 2021 to open start against Royals
Payton Tolle completes first Red Sox immaculate inning since 2021 to open start against Royals | Boston Globe/GettyImages

As of September 15, two American League teams have clinched playoff spots and they're both rivals of the Boston Red Sox. The New York Yankees on September 14 joined the Tampa Bay Rays on the setlist for October baseball.

The sight of the Yankees popping champagne and celebrating another Wild Card berth should give the Red Sox the motivation to join them as quickly as possible. If Boston maintains its current standing and clinches the second Wild Card spot, it will be in for a rematch of the only postseason series it played last year — a best-of-three in the Bronx.

The Yankees clinched despite three errors in a comeback win against the Minnesota Twins, another club that had been in the hunt. Barring a miracle, they could be out of it now at 5.5 games below their division rival Cleveland Guardians for the third Wild Card spot.

The Red Sox's magic number has dropped to five with four series left on the season. Any combination of Red Sox wins and Toronto Blue Jays (the first team out) losses up to five will earn Boston a playoff spot this year.

Red Sox magic number drops to five as Yankees join Rays in AL playoff group

That's easier said than done for the Sox, since the Blue Jays have been one of the best-performing teams of the second half. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also on September 13 hit his first home run of the season at Toronto's Rogers Centre, and if that gives him the expected confidence boost, the Jays might go on a run.

Boston has a tough slate ahead. All four of its remaining series come against playoff teams or playoff hopefuls, starting with the Texas Rangers, who sit one spot below the Blue Jays in the rankings, as of this writing. The Rangers will be extra motivated because they're so close to the playoffs, fighting for their first appearance since they won the World Series in 2023. Thankfully, Wilyer Abreu may be able to handle them on his own — he has a 2.035 OPS over eight appearances at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.

The Guardians, Rays and Chicago Cubs follow the Rangers. Like Texas, Cleveland will be extremely determined to keep its Wild Card standing, if it still has it by the time the series starts on September 22. The Rays are locked in for the postseason and the Cubs aren't far behind in the first Wild Card spot in the National League. Despite the Rays' status as a certain playoff team, they'll be fighting for the best possible standing and they won't give up early.

The Red Sox's playoff odds have reached 100 percent, per FanGraphs, and all they need to do is win a few more games to punch their ticket. If things go its way, Boston could be a playoff team by the end of the week.

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