The upcoming MLB offseason is expected to be vastly different than all others. The Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) between the league and the MLB Players' Association (MLBPA) expires on December 1 and no deals — signings or trades — can occur between then and the adoption of the new CBA.
There's no telling how long negotiations will take. Some reporters and insiders have forecasted a lockout and a delayed season, and others have forecasted no season at all. It doesn't help that the league and team owners have proposed some wild things, from a salary cap and floor to the overhauling of the draft process and international free agent signings.
Regardless of how long the expected lockout lasts, there will be some action before it. Teams have all of November to court free agents and other front offices to make trades and get ahead of the game before negotiation time closes. But the Boston Red Sox might not be aggressive participants, if history repeats itself.
Alex Speier of The Boston Globe recalls that the Red Sox avoided "major payroll commitments" after the expiration of the 2007-11 CBA (subscription required). After the next CBA expired in 2016, Boston made its major acquisitions via the trade market. The Chris Sale deal was its biggest move that year.
Red Sox's offseason activity history in CBA negotiation years suggests they might not be active before the expected lockout begins
Speier also noted that this offseason is entirely unpredictable. Owners are pushing harder than ever for a salary cap and other things like the luxury tax could be done away with. Going into this offseason, there is more than enough uncertainty to deter a club from making massive free agent commitments.
Boston has generally avoided the free agent market in CBA negotiation years, with the exception of 2022 when they signed Michael Wacha, Rich Hill and James Paxton. The 2026-27 free agent class is rather unimpressive with Randy Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki and Brandon Lowe leading the charge as some of the best hitters available. The underwhelm of this year's free agent group, plus the history of the Red Sox's activity in CBA renewal years doesn't bode well for aggressive offseason signing activity.
The Red Sox could make most of their offseason moves on the trade market, as they did last season when they landed Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin, all major contributors in 2026. That approach would align with more of their recent activity following a renewed CBA.
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