Following the Boston Red Sox's second-straight early playoff elimination, it's time for them to shift their sights to 2027. Boston has a staggering 17 players entering salary arbitration, which is tied for the most in the league.
Boston is quite a young team and a few players will hit arbitration for the first time, like Wilyer Abreu. The Sox also acquired a few arbitration eligible players this year, including Eli White, Adley Rutschman and Andruw Monasterio.
MLB Trade Rumors is the top predictor of arbitration salaries every offseason and, if it's right, the Red Sox will take on quite a bit more in the payroll department from internal players. Some of its projections make more sense than others and we'll break them down.
The prediction that stands out most on Boston's list is the one for Jarren Duran, which is a staggering $11.1 million. The impending season is Duran's third year of arbitration and he's scheduled to become a free agent after the 2028 season.
Duran and the Red Sox agreed to a $7.7 million contract before the 2026 season and it'd be hard to argue he played up to that salary. Duran posted the worst offensive year of his career with a .207/.266/.361 slash line and 165 strikeouts in 157 games. If the Red Sox needed to trade Duran before, his exorbitant salary alongside all the other players entering arbitration means they must now.
Red Sox should move on from some of their arbitration eligible players to free up some payroll for free agency and trade additions
Triston Casas' predicted arbitration salary is also more than the Red Sox are probably willing to pay at $1.7 million. He didn't appear in the major leagues all season due to abdominal and wrist injuries. Casas only played in 89 games between 2024-25. If the Red Sox don't find anyone to take him on via trade, he could be at risk to be non-tendered.
Adley Rutschman and Wilyer Abreu are projected to take home the next priciest salaries, $9.1 million and $4.6 million, respectively. Rutschman plays a premier position and he's one year from free agency so MLBTR's projection for him makes sense as long as he doesn't underperform offensively again. Many Red Sox fans are hopeful that the organization will sign him to an extension, possibly changing his pay in 2027. This is Abreu's first year of arbitration, but he's about to have three trophies in his cabinet after he wins his third Gold Glove, so his pay makes sense, as well.
Rehabbing pitchers Tanner Houck ($4.1 million), Johan Oviedo ($1.8 million) and Kutter Crawford ($2.8 million) are projected to come within half a million dollars or less of their 2026 checks. Crawford hasn't pitched in the major leagues since 2024, Oviedo made one start before he fell injured and Houck appeared in one game before the Wild Card series, so they haven't earned substantial pay increases. The Red Sox might be unwilling to keep them all through the offseason, though, as they could combine their salaries and trade for a better pitcher to replace impending free agent Sonny Gray.
Zack Kelly ($800 thousand), Greg Weissert ($1.2 million), Erik Miller ($1.5 million), Justin Slaten ($1.2 million) and Tyron Guerrero ($1.1 million) will largely come in close to the million mark. If Miller and Guerrero continue the regular seasons they had, their contracts will be a bargain for Boston. Kelly spent nearly all of the 2026 season in Triple-A and on the 60-day injured list, so his payday won't increase much from his 2026 total.
Eli White ($1.4 million), Romy Gonzalez ($1.8 million), Connor Wong ($2 million), Andruw Monasterio ($1.6 million) and Jahmai Jones ($900 thousand) make up the depth player group. Their projected salaries are reasonable given their expected contributions to the team — Wong and Gonzalez make sense as the highest paid given the former's premier position and Gonzalez's previous success in the majors.
Eight more players have entered arbitration for Boston than last year, but there's no sense in keeping them all when it could find better players for their positions. The projections for Duran and Casas are overpays given their impact (or lack thereof) on the team in the last year or two. The Red Sox also don't need Houck, Oviedo and Crawford alongside Garrett Crochet, Payton Tolle, Ranger Suarez and Jake Bennett, so one or two of them could be moved to bring in a righty pitcher for the front of the rotation.
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