Optimism has swept Boston Red Sox Nation in a scale fans haven't seen in at least half a decade after their latest offseason moves.
The additions of Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler and Alex Bregman have Sox fans excited about the coming campaign, and their Grapefruit League performances back it up. Boston also has the returns of Trevor Story and Lucas Giolito to look forward to, along with a (hopefully) fully healthy Rafael Devers, a full year of Triston Casas, top prospect debuts, improved pitching depth, and so much more.
But MLB Network and FanDuel Sportsbook don't seem to share in Red Sox fans' excitement. MLB Network shared projected American League East rankings by PECOTA, which has the Red Sox in the basement with 79.9 wins and a sub-.500 record. PECOTA ranked the Orioles and Blue Jays as first and second place, respectively, which is possibly even more puzzling than the choice to place Boston last.
First and foremost, there's little chance the Red Sox will be worse this year than they were last year. Obviously, unforeseen circumstances like injuries and extra-innings losses can occur, but Boston addressed nearly all the deficiencies that held it back last season.
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— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) March 18, 2025
The Red Sox batted .245/.318/.409 as a team against lefty pitchers last season. Boston addressed its struggles against southpaws by signing Bregman, and despite losing Tyler O'Neill's 31-homer production, Bregman's stats at Fenway Park are enough to inspire confidence (.375/.490/.750 slash line, 1.240 OPS in 21 career appearances). Story, finally healthy, has posted a stellar spring at the plate and top prospect Kristian Campbell will bring in more righty pop when he reaches the big leagues, which could be as soon as Opening Day.
Bregman and Story also bring improved infield defense, with which the Sox struggled severely last year. They clocked 115 errors, the vast majority coming from the infield due to Story's prolonged absence and lack of capable infield depth. But with two Gold Glove-caliber infielders in the mix and another year of work under the belt of top prospects, the Red Sox are in a much better spot defensively than last season.
MLB Network and PECOTA project Red Sox will finish last in the AL East, despite their many improvements this offseason
Their pitching staff is also bolstered to an extent it hasn't been in quite some time. Crochet is shaping up to be one of the most elite starting pitchers in the game, Buehler's spring stats suggest he may be primed for a rebound season, and Tanner Houck is fresh off a breakout year. Injuries to Brayan Bello, Giolito and Patrick Sandoval could hamper Boston's starting pitching staff in the early goings of the season, but chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has brought in enough depth to account for them — Quinn Priester, Richard Fitts, Sean Newcomb, Michael Fulmer and Cooper Criswell can all make spot starts when necessary.
No other team in the AL East has improved to the extent the Red Sox have this offseason. Arguably, the Yankees did, but long-term injuries are going to hurt them enough to cancel out a lot of their additions. They signed Max Fried, but Gerrit Cole will be out for the season and Luis Gil's first start will be delayed by months. Giancarlo Stanton is one of their only consistent power bats behind Aaron Judge, and his elbow injuries have been characterized as "severe." The Orioles lost their heaviest hitter, Anthony Santander and their best pitcher, Corbin Burnes. The Blue Jays lost out on just about every major free agent they chased, but landed Santander and Max Scherzer, who is already combatting injuries. And the Rays are, well, the Rays. They added Ha-Seong Kim and Danny Jansen, which aren't huge moves, but they'll surely have an average-to-good record, anyway.
The Red Sox are the most improved team in the AL East, and they'll only get better when their top prospects debut later in the season, barring any catastrophic injuries to critical players. Almost every facet of the team has been enhanced in one way or another, between offseason additions, players returning from injury and increased depth around the diamond. MLB Network and PECOTA have underrated Boston's improvements compared to the rest of its division — and frankly, the entire AL — and clubs around MLB would be wise to think differently.