The outfield logjam has become such a contentious topic among Boston Red Sox fans that it's hard to know what's legitimate information and what's speculative nonsense anymore. The only thing that people seem to be able to agree upon is that the Red Sox do, in fact, need to make a trade to alleviate some of the burden on the current roster.
That's only become more true with the addition of Kristian Campbell to the outfield mix, which is more a product of his inability to play second base with any competency than it is foreshadowing that a trade is coming.
Who among the incumbent triumvirate of Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela will be the odd-man out remains a mystery (even if the solution appears fairly obvious on paper). All three bring different strengths to the lineup and defense, and all have at least three years of (relatively cheap) team control remaining.
Thus, leave it to Jeff Passan to lay down the hammer. In his latest offseason preview update, ESPN's chief baseball reporter has made it clear that Rafaela won't be putting on a new uniform 2026.
Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu tabbed as most likely Red Sox trade targets by Jeff Passan
When listing out his top trade candidates for the offseason, Passan began the section with Abreu and Duran, definitively stating: "The Red Sox almost surely will deal one of them. There aren't enough at-bats in the lineup for both, especially if they add another bat in free agency."
Nowhere does he acknowledge Rafaela as a trade chip, which is exacty how the Red Sox should think of their star center fielder. His eight-year, $50 million contract (that comes equipped with a team option for 2032) ties him to the Red Sox for longer than either Duran or Abreu, and he just won a Gold Glove in center field while recording 22 Outs Above Average and 20 Defensive Runs Saved.
Considering he also just had a career year the plate — he hit 16 homers, stole 20 bags, and posted a 91 wRC+ — it's hard to imagine the front office giving up on such a sterling defender who's attached to a scant $6.25 million AAV.
It is interesting that Passan floats the idea of the Red Sox adding another bat to the outfield; we know the team is looking for corner-infield upgrades, but could they be in the market for a more-established corner outfielder to pair with Roman Anthony? That could free the team up to trade both Duran and Abreu for pitching help.
Either way, it's clear that the Red Sox know which of their outfielders they need to hold onto this offseason. No matter what some "insiders" report, Rafaela should be glued to Boston for the foreseeable future.