Red Sox fans may have spoken too soon on winner of Caleb Durbin-Kyle Harrison trade

We won't spend too long belaboring how bad the Kyle Harrison-Caleb Durbin looked for the Boston Red Sox after a few months; the southpaw had emerged as a genuine National League Cy Young contender for the Milwaukee Brewers in the first half, while the third baseman was one of the league's worst qualified hitters through the beginning of June. Tack on the fact that Shane Drohan has become a valuable starter in his own right this year while Andruw Monasterio has been worth negative fWAR, and you've got a recipe for an all-time disaster of a trade.

And yet, after the tide began shifting over the summer, we can now definitively say the pendulum has swung back in the other direction. Durbin has been a star since June 1, posting an .812 OPS and a 129 wRC+. Meanwhile, Harrison is struggling so badly that he's now been moved out of the Brewers' rotation entirely.

It's far too early to suggest that the Red Sox have made up that early gap and are now the winners of the blockbuster trade, but it's clear that their decision to go all-in for Durbin wasn't a foolish one.

Red Sox just need to break even now to win Caleb Durbin trade in the future

In that same post-June-1 span, Harrison has pitched to an 6.10 ERA and 5.38 FIP, allowing a whopping 17 home runs over just 59 innings. A bout with forearm tightness near the All-Star break definitely has something to do with his second-half collapse, but he hasn't been pitching like an ace for quite a while. The fact that there's been conversations about him being left off the Brewers' postseason roster entirely should tell you all you need to know about the southpaw's recent struggles.

Durbin is trending in the exact opposite direction, as he's currently the seventh-most valuable third baseman in the league by fWAR (2.9) this season. A lot of that has to do with how excellent his baserunning and glove have been, but saying that someone is above average in every phase of the game isn't exactly a bad thing. He's a couple of steals and some favorable votes away from a 20 SB, Gold Glove campaign in his Red Sox debut. Not too shabby, eh?

It's also worth factoring in the other players Craig Breslow pried out of Milwaukee; neither Monasterio nor Anthony Seigler have been great in limited duty in Boston, but the former has produced some timely hits while playing all four infield positions while the latter has a 102 wRC+ in just under 175 plate appearances this year.

Then there's Owen Hull, whom the Red Sox selected with the compensatory draft pick the Brewers forked over in the trade. All he did after being drafted was mash in High-A, posting a .967 OPS in 24 games.

With Durbin under contract through 2031 and Hull sure to fly up the prospect rankings over the offseason, there's a good chance that the Sox can win this trade down the road, so long as they continue to break even for now.

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