It's well known that starting pitching is the Boston Red Sox's No. 1 offseason need. Their pursuit of rotation arms was briefly derailed by the bidding war for Juan Soto, but the star has signed, and the race to sign pitching is officially on.
However, recent reports suggest Boston won't be as involved in the market for elite free agent hurlers as fans hoped. Despite bidding $700 million to sign Soto, the Red Sox appear to be shopping small.
MLB Network insider Jon Morosi stated on Dec. 10 that the starting pitcher market is exceptionally expensive this offseason, and not many teams are willing to pay the price for top-tier starters. Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive corroborated Morosi's report on the "Fenway Rundown" podcast, saying the Sox seem unlikely to compete with teams "ready to go dollar for dollar" for a Corbin Burnes or Max Fried-type pitcher.
Additionally, comments from Boston's chief baseball officer Craig Breslow suggest it may be targeting up-and-coming pitchers rather than proven aces.
“If you’re always trading for the bonafide ace, the guy who has established himself, then it’s going to take a pretty significant dent out of your future," Breslow said, as reported by McAdam. "One thing baseball front offices have become pretty good at is recognizing the underlying stats and metrics, especially in pitching — pitch data and performance data — and being able to project who is likely to become a top of the rotation pitcher."
The Red Sox don't seem to be targeting elite free agent pitching as aggressively as they should
After seeing Boston's Soto bid, this is not the news Red Sox fans hoped for. Things may have changed in Boston's front office since Cotillo and McAdam's report, including some additional noise in the Fried market, but Sox fans won't know without action.
Early in the offseason, Breslow, Sam Kennedy and Alex Cora addressed fans and said the team hopes to contend for a division title in 2025. The best way to complement the Sox's existing offense — which ranked in the top 10 in almost every metric last year — would be to sign one of the best pitchers on the market. They could easily sign multiple with the money they nearly committed to Soto.
Red Sox have no excuses not to be one of the "few clubs" willing to pay them. https://t.co/LpTw9e9im4
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) December 10, 2024
There is risk involved with signing or trading any player, especially starting pitchers. The Red Sox have been burned by pricey starting pitcher contracts before, and they've been deterred from signing elite arms to long-term deals since the David Price and Chris Sale acquisitions. Unfortunately, most top-of-the-line players seek lengthy deals, and if the Red Sox really want to improve, they'll need to get with the times.
Boston has been linked to both Burnes and Fried and was named a finalist in the Fried market on Dec. 10 during Winter Meetings. The lefty has allegedly narrowed his choices down to the Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays. Among stiff, local competition, this is a race the Red Sox can't afford to lose.
Max Fried nearing decision with Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays among teams in mix: https://t.co/SCDo4KHEne
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 10, 2024
Whiffing on the elite starter options this winter could be the last straw for plenty of Sox fans who thought this would finally be Boston's year after missing the playoffs in five of the last six seasons. The Red Sox can't ever hope to compete with the Yankees' rotation if they get to Fried first, unless they retaliate with Burnes.
Boston also doesn't need to be limited to the trade market, and it shouldn't be after fans saw the money it was willing to drop on Soto. Sure, the Red Sox have plenty of young position players to be able to trade a few, but money may as well grow on trees to Fenway Sports Group owner John Henry. Fried and Burnes would both cost a fraction of what Soto would demand, but the Sox seem more likely to trade away a fan-favorite than spend money they've long hoarded on their most desperate need.
The Red Sox should go above and beyond to meet the high expectations they set for their fans this year, or risk Fenway Park being even emptier in 2025. Fried and Burnes should be at the top of their priority list, regardless of their price. Fans will not be quick to forget how close they came to spending hundreds of millions of dollars on Soto — coming in second for elite pitchers will not fly.