The Boston Red Sox are one win away from clinching their first playoff spot since 2021. They got into this position by taking the first two games in their final regular season series against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Obviously, winning games serves Boston by pushing it into the postseason and potentially earning it higher Wild Card standing. But beating Toronto on September 25 could also cause an undesirable consequence elsewhere in the division.
Before their games on September 25, the Blue Jays and the New York Yankees are tied for the best record in the American League East, at 90-68. Toronto has the tie breaker after beating New York in the regular season series so it remains in first place for now, but another loss to the Red Sox could be its undoing.
The Yankees have an easy end to their regular season schedule, with one more game against the White Sox and a series against the Orioles remaining. If the Yankees sweep the White Sox and the Red Sox sweep the Blue Jays, the Yankees will move into first place in the AL East and out of the No. 4 seed in the postseason standings.
The Red Sox could help the Yankees by beating the Blue Jays on September 25
Beating the Blue Jays and clinching a playoff berth is an obvious goal for Boston, but helping New York is suboptimal. Not only would another Red Sox win (and a White Sox sweep) grant the Yankees a first round bye, but the Red Sox would have to face another opponent in the first round, possibly increasing their chances of elimination.
Regardless of their record or standing in recent seasons, the Red Sox have often been able to pull it together enough to beat the Yankees. Boston won the 2025 season series against New York, 8-4, and it hasn't lost a playoff series to its rival since 2003, before the Curse of the Bambino was broken.
The Red Sox have largely been able to keep the Yankees' big bats quiet. Aaron Judge is slashing just .252/.375/.519 against Boston over 117 games in his career — those aren't bad numbers by any means, but Judge has been one of baseball's best hitters for years, and his stats against the Red Sox don't hold a candle to his production elsewhere. Judge is batting .328/.455/.681 with a 1.136 OPS this season. Brayan Bello has also historically owned New York. He has a 2.30 ERA against the Yankees after 11 starts against them in his career, and they're bating just .213/.283/.301 against him.
Playing the Yankees in the Wild Card round is possibly the best-case scenario for the Red Sox, despite their loss in the rivals' most recent series. Boston always seems to deliver against New York in big moments, and its expected playoff berth would be its first in four years. A Red Sox-Yankees Wild Card round would also do wonders for the storied rivalry which has underwhelmed fans while Boston missed the postseason in three straight seasons.