Projecting what a Red Sox-Walker Buehler contract extension might look like

After two difficult starts to begin the season, Walker Buehler has settled in nicely in Boston, giving up just four earned runs in his last three starts combined.

Overall, even with those two rough starts, Buehler's ERA, WHIP, home runs per nine and walks per nine are all down from his 2024 numbers, and his strikeout numbers are up. Overall, he's inducing more chases and weaker contact than he did last year. Although it's early, he seems to have cemented himself as the No. 2 starter in the Red Sox rotation, behind ace Garrett Crochet.

Buehler is showing shades of his pre-2022 self again, when he was one of the most dominant pitchers in MLB. This, combined with the Red Sox' newfound propensity for giving out extensions, has raised the prospect that Buehler may get a new contract.

Here's what the Red Sox should offer Walker Buehler if they're interested in extending him

What could an extension for Buehler look like? He's currently on a one year, $21.05 million contract with a mutual option for 2026. The Red Sox would have to be careful with any extension they hand out given Buehler's injury history and performance in the last couple seasons. Buehler is also already 30 and presumably past his prime. It'd be a big surprise if he totally regained the form of his younger self.

An extension at this stage would probably be for around four to five years and be valued at about $20 million per year. That average annual value is less than what he's making now, but he would get far more guaranteed money and the Red Sox shouldn't expect him to be as valuable as he ages.

Of course, that price and duration could change markedly depending on how long the Red Sox wait. If Buehler continues to improve, he could become a far more valuable asset, and the Sox would need to offer more in an extension to keep him from exercising his option and becoming a free agent. If the reverse happens, Buehler would be cheaper, but an extension at that stage would be ill-advised given his recent track record and injury history.