Predicting what a Red Sox-Nathaniel Lowe contract extension might look like

Nathaniel Lowe has been a revelation for the Red Sox. He was having a rough season in Washington after being acquired by them in an offseason trade. The 30-year-old first baseman had career lows in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, and had a negative bWAR for the first time in his career.

Despite being under team control for another season, the two parties decided to split up, and Lowe was released, allowing him to sign with Boston for the league minimum.

Since joining the Sox, Lowe is hitting .324 with a .949 OPS. The former Silver Slugger and Gold Glove winner seemingly needed a change of scenery, and joining a contender has rejuvenated his season. It was a win-win scenario for both sides, with the Sox needing an upgrade at first for the playoff push and Lowe looking to rebuild his value with his final year of arbitration eligibility approaching.

The addition of the lefty has lengthened the Red Sox's already deep lineup, and keeping him around beyond 2025 should be something Craig Breslow and Co. put a lot of thought into.

The First base position next season is still very much up in the air. While Triston Casas believes he will be ready for Opening Day 2026, the gruesomeness of his injury makes the timeline unpredictable at the moment. Kristian Campbell is seeing less time at first lately, so he may not be the answer there either. Plus, Lowe is a World Series-winning vet, good for a team with high aspirations the next few seasons.

Lowe has another year of arbitration before he will officially reach free agency, but going to arbitration with him doesn't solve the team's potential long-term issue at first base. They'll be fine for 2026 and then the jury will be out on Casas — right back to where the Sox were a few months ago.

Predicting what a Red Sox-Nathaniel Lowe contract extension might look like

While the downturn in production this year will certainly hurt Lowe's value, his previous seasons can help to even it out. A solid contract to get a baseline for Lowe would be Yandy Diaz's first contract extension with Tampa Bay. Before 2023, Diaz, at 31 years old, signed a three-year, $24 million deal with the Rays that bought out his final year of arbitration plus the first two of free agency. He was coming off a career-best season, but hadn't won any awards to that point.

While Lowe probably wouldn't get a three-year deal with Boston, a two-year deal, with the second year being a vesting option that would be contingent on games played or plate appearances. In terms of AAV, the Sox may need to at least replicate the $10 million he made in 2025 with the Nats, and then tack on some incentives for 2026 and 2027.

If the Red Sox were to keep Lowe this offseason, their best bet might be a two-year, $22 million extension. It can be pitched as a one-year, $10 million deal with a $12 million option for 2027. That'd probably be the easiest way for the Red Sox to avoid any headaches and maintain continuity with the slugger at first base. If Lowe drives a hard bargin, they can throw in incentives to bring the total value to $26 million.

If Lowe his to his career averages of .265/.347/.426 (.773 OPS, 116 OPS+), the deal will be a hit for both parties.