Predicting the Rule 5 Draft plans for the Boston Red Sox during 2024-25 offseason

The Rule 5 Draft is coming up in December, and the deadline to protect players by placing them on the 40-man roster is Nov. 19. What should you expect from the Boston Red Sox before the draft? Who will they protect from the draft, and who won't make the cut?

If we're being honest, we only see one player being protected this year. The Red Sox don't have any room on the 40-man roster. They will likely make some cuts, but for now, they don't have any room. With that in mind, they'll need to make some risky decisions.

The first decision is Angel Bastardo. He won't be protected. Before his injury, we would've expected him to be on the 40-man roster. However, the right-handed pitcher won't play in 2025. The Red Sox aren't going to put him on the 40-man for that reason. It would start his options, and with Bastardo only in Double-A, it would cause headaches in the future.

Grant Gambrell won't be placed on the 40-man, either. The righty had a solid year in Triple-A, but the Red Sox clearly didn't view him as a great option. If he can stay as depth for the rotation, they'd love that. But they'll be willing to risk Gambrell getting taken.

Yordanny Monegro also seems unlikely for a 40-man spot. They didn't promote the right-handed pitcher to Double-A before the end of the season, and that felt like a purposeful move. They did it to keep other teams from being inclined to draft him. No GM will put someone who hasn't pitched above High-A on their Opening Day roster. Monegro will likely be placed on the Triple-A roster for the time being to protect him from the minor league portion of the draft.

No other starting pitchers are in danger. Relievers like Christopher Troye, Brendan Cellucci, Brian Van Belle, Gabriel Jackson, Jacob Webb, and Wyatt Olds might get selected. The risk isn't too high, though, and the Red Sox won't roster any of them.

Jhostynxon Garcia is the big name to look out for when it comes to position players. The 2024 season was a major breakout for the right-handed hitting outfielder. However, he only appeared in 30 games in Double-A, and it feels unlikely that a team will take the risk on a hitter with that little experience at the level. Garcia might still be the second-most likely to be protected.

Other potential hitters are Blaze Jordan (who hasn't made it to Triple-A yet), Allan Castro (who also hasn't made it to Triple-A), Alex Binelas (cup of coffee in Triple-A), Nathan Hickey (demoted to Double-A late in the season), Phillip Sikes (cup of coffee in Triple-A), and Tyler McDonough (flipping between Double-A and Triple-A).

Very few of those feel like legitimate threats to be selected, so the Red Sox aren't going to move parts around to free up spots for them, which brings us to the one player who feels like a slam dunk to be protected: Hunter Dobbins.

The right-handed pitcher enjoyed a fantastic year in Double-A before being promoted to Triple-A in late August. Despite the higher level, Dobbins continued to dominate. He finished the year with a 3.08 ERA, .237 BAA, and 1.26 WHIP in 25 starts between the two levels. He struck out 120 batters compared to 48 walks in 125 2/3 innings.

Dobbins has a mid-high 90s fastball and good off-speed pitches that include a splinker. He's one of the top pitching prospects in the system and has a legitimate chance to make an impact in the Majors in 2025.

If the Red Sox don't protect Dobbins, another team will take him. It feels like an easy choice for Boston.

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