The biggest rivalry in baseball restarts at Fenway Park on Friday night with both teams looking to bolster its standing in a crowded American League playoff picture.
The Boston Red Sox will try to get back over .500 this weekend, currently 34-35 on the year while the New York Yankees try to maintain their fine record without star Aaron Judge, 39-30, as the reigning AL MVP recovers from a toe injury.
Here are the odds and our best bet for the first of three on Friday night:
Yankees vs. Red Sox odds, run line and total
Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction and pick
This is a fade of the Yankees lineup that is hitting .212 in games that Judge is in the lineup. The team is futile at the plate and lacks the depth to compete with the elite offenses in baseball, like the Red Sox are.
Boston is eighth in in slugging percentage on the year and 11th in wRC+, which quantifies the run scoring chances for each team. The team faces Domingo German, who looks like a quality starter on the surface, but is due for some regression with his underlying metrics.
The Yankees right hander has an ERA of 3.49, but has an xERA of 4.29, mainly because of his unsutainable batted ball luck.
German has allowed opponents to hit .207 on balls in play this season, meaning that despite allowing contact at about a league average level, teams can't generate hits off of him. However, Boston is elite at making contact and getting runners in scoring position, and at home, I believe the team should be favored to beat the banged up Yankees.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.