What James Paxton's return means for Red Sox rotation
He hasn't pitched in a regular season game for the Red Sox since 2021, when he only lasted 1-1/3 innings against the Chicago White Sox. That's not just his totals for that one game, that's throughout the entire season -- big leagues or otherwise -- and it all started and ended on the same day: April 6, 2021.
Now, this may sound like some minor league prospect that had some promise, showed what he had, or more accurately didn't have, then quickly got sent down to the minors. Instead, we're talking about bonafide major league pitcher: specifically, James "Big Maple" Paxton -- a 10-year MLB veteran, and only the second Canadian-born pitcher to throw a no-hitter in MLB history.
Paxton is expected to make his first start since 2021 on Friday against the St. Louis Cardinals at Fenway Park. It will be his first big league start -- and first start with the Boston -- after tweaking his hamstring in spring training this season, and getting Tommy John surgery during the 2021 season, and recovering during the 2022 season.
Since being cleared for baseball activities, he has pitched in six games for Triple-A Worcester, five of them coming as starts. He has gone collected a 2-3 record, with a 6.23 ERA in 21-2/3 innings. He has also struck out 26 and walked 16.
Here's who should stay in the rotation, who should go to the bullpen, and who is fighting to stay in the rotation when he returns.
Who should stay in the rotation: Tanner Houck
Going into the 2023 season, Tanner Houck looked like the surprise pick to be in the rotation, and early on many called for the Red Sox to reconsider their decision and immediately put him back into the bullpen, "where he belonged" as some would say.
His numbers in 2023, however, have caused many to rethink that, and maybe let him stay in the rotation. After winning his first two starts of the season, his third followed as a no-decision -- but team win. Following this, he suffered two losses and another no-decision, but that's not to say his starts haven't been solid.
While he may not have won every game, not only have the Red Sox have won nearly every game he has pitched in this season, but Houck has also racked up 33 strikeouts in seven games -- giving him an average of nearly five per game. He also has only walked 14.
Watch for Houck to stay in the rotation for awhile, unless Boston is in desperate need of a bullpen arm, or maybe a hybrid-arm.
Who should go to the bullpen: Garrett Whitlock
One player who was supposed to start the year in the rotation, but really should have stayed where he was in 2022 -- in the bullpen -- is Garrett Whitlock. In fact, John Tomase of NBC Sports Boston called the move to put him in the rotation, the worst move of the season.
When looking at his numbers from last numbers from both 2022 and 2021, he was much more solid when he was coming out of the bullpen more consistently - or in 2021's case, exclusively out of the bullpen.
In 2022, he held a 4-2 record with a 3.45 ERA in 31 games - nine of them being starts. He also struck out 82, and walked just 15 all while collecting four holds, and five saves. 2021, however, was an evne more solid season for Whitlock. He went 8-4 with a 1.96 ERA over 46 games, where he struck out 81 and struck out 17.
It's clear where Whitlock belongs with the numbers mentioned above: the bullpen. Sure, he can be counted on in a pinch out of the rotation, but the Red Sox should look to keep him in the 'pen.
Who is fighting for a spot/might get sent down: Brayan Bello
Now, before you say anything, this isn't to say that Brayan Bello is having a bad season. The truth of the matter is, he just hasn't played up in the big leagues a ton this season, and the reason he's fighting for a spot in the rotation is MassLive.com's Christopher Smith's report that Boston manager Alex Cora, has "not ruied out a six-man rotation".
In three games this season, Bello holds a 0-1 record while holding a 6.57 ERA. He has also struck out 14, and walked just five.
To add to his fight, and taking a look outside of the numbers, the Red Sox have won his last two starts - despite Bello tallying no-decisions in both of them.
Bello is fighting for his spot, but he is fighting on thin ice against some juggernauts who think that they, too, truly belong in the rottaion. There is the chance he gets sent to Triple-A Worcester, but it's not out of lack of ability.
Ultimate determination: the Red Sox will wait and see
Ultimately, at the end of the day, Paxton will need to be given some time to settle in before Boston decides who will be staying, and maybe that results in a six-man rotation.
Right now, the Red Sox have a problem with their pitching, and it's not that that they have too little: it's that they have too much. solid pitching.
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