James Paxton is back. The Boston Red Sox traded an unknown, 17-year-old prospect for the starter the Dodgers recently designated for assignment.
The Red Sox needed to add a starting pitcher who can eat innings. An “innings eater” does not mean the best pitcher on the market, but a guy who can go deep into games. Only twice this season has Paxton pitched into the seventh inning, which doesn't make sense when you consider that he does not strike anybody out (his 6.45 K/9 ranks 8th worst in MLB).
In his next one or two starts, the oft-injured, 35-year-old will have thrown his most innings since 2019. He is just as taxed as the rest of Boston's starters.
Why was Paxton given away by the Dodgers, a team that is likely active in acquiring starting pitching? Well, because Paxton has been one of the worst starters in MLB this year.
The Red Sox need to add more than just James Paxton to have an impact on the rotation
Paxton leads the National League with 48 walks. In eight of his 18 starts, he has either posted an even or negative strikeout-to-walk ratio. In fact, among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched, he ranks second to last in strikeout-to-walk ratio, trailing only Dakota Hudson. When Paxton does throw strikes, he gets hit hard. His 34.7% hard hit percentage and 13.4% soft hit percentage are both 16th-worst amongst pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched.
Paxton is at the bottom of the league in pitch modeling data. Unsurprisingly, FanGraphs'PitchingBot and Stuff+ metrics rank Paxton's Location+/Command in the lower percentile of pitchers with at least 80 innings thrown. His "stuff" ratings are even lower. Paxton ranks fourth-to-last in Stuff+. Put his terrible location and stuff together, and what you get is a pitcher who ranks LAST in Pitching+.
The Boston Red Sox are acquiring left-hander James Paxton in a trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers, sources tell ESPN. Done deal.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 26, 2024
Paxton, 35, will return to Boston, where he spent the 2023 season, after being DFA’d by the Dodgers. In 89.1 innings this season, he has a 4.43 ERA.
Do not even point to his win-loss record. Sure, he’s 8-2. Pretty basic statistics will show he should not be close to that. He has profited more than anybody in the league from run support. According to Baseball Reference, Paxton leads all of baseball in run support in the games he’s started.
Even though Andrew Bailey has been able to perform miracles on the pitching staff, turning Paxton’s season around seems unlikely, at best. Perhaps Paxton could be moved into a long reliever role, supplanting Chase Anderson, and Craig Breslow will trade for another starter? This trade is far too predicated on familiarity and recency bias, given how he pitched in his last start against the Sox.
If Paxton is the only starter Breslow trades for, it feels like saying he bought at the trade deadline without actually buying. It would be a cop-out. Trading for even a mid-tier starter not only bolsters the team, but it prevents the Yankees and Orioles from getting starting pitching help that they also desperately need.
Paxton is another glorified waiver claim from Breslow. This isn't solving any issues. Quite the opposite, actually.