Royals vs Red Sox prediction and odds for Wednesday, August 9 (Fade Lyles win streak)

Boston allowed three home runs yesterday and lost 9-3 to the Royals at Fenway Park. They have split the first two games of the series.
Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta (37)
Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) / Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox were happy to have Trevor Story back yesterday but they weren’t happy with the outcome as Story went hitless and the Kansas City Royals cruised to a 9-3 win. Boston is now 58-55 and in last place in the AL East. That’s still a lot better than the last place Royals who are 37-78. 

For Game 3 of four at Fenway Park Jordan Lyles will take the mound against Nick Pivetta. Lyles is 3-12 with wins in his last two starts and a 6.24 ERA. Pivetta is 7-6 with a 4.19 ERA in 27 games, nine of those were starts. 

Lyles has a recent win streak going, but the Red Sox are still home favorites against one of the worst teams in baseball. 

Royals vs. Red Sox odds, run line and total

Royals vs. Red Sox prediction and pick

Nick Pivetta has earned his way back into the rotation for the Red Sox, but he may not stay there long after his last start where he only lasted four innings and gave up three runs. That wasn’t bad enough to get sent back to the bullpen and he should have a good outing against the Royals today. Kansas City is 26th in home runs and they managed to hit three yesterday, so I think that will dry up the rest of the series.

The same goes for Jordan Lyles’ little win streak. He’s been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year and suddenly has won back-to-back starts, but that’s not because he’s been any good. Last time out he went 5.2 innings and allowed five runs on eight hits with just two strikeouts. That won’t win you a game very often, but over the last 30 days the Royals have scored the 12th more runs, so they’re giving him plenty of run support.

I said that Kansas City can’t rely on the long ball consistently like they did yesterday, but the Royals are 7-3 in their last 10 games and the over is 7-3 in that stretch. They’re very hot and Boston, on the other hand, is 2-8 in their last 10 games. I don’t want to chase a bad team on a hot streak, so I won’t take the Royals to win. Instead, I’ll take the over. Either they stay hot offensively or Lyles blows up and the Red Sox help us get to the total. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change