It’s been a rough stretch of baseball lately for the Boston Red Sox and it has dropped them down to last place in the AL East.
After going 2-7 in their last nine they are 28-27, 10.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for first in the division. To make matters worse, they are on the verge of being swept by the 26-29 Cincinnati Reds.
Last night the Reds took a 5-4 win to secure their first series victory over Boston since the 1975 World Series.
For the final game of the series we’ll get to see two power pitchers on the mound as Hunter Greene faces Chris Sale. Greene is 1-4 in 11 starts with a 4.18 ERA and Sale is 5-2 in 10 starts with a 4.72 ERA.
The Reds have won five straight, but they are underdogs at Fenway Park today.
Reds vs. Red Sox odds, run line and total
Reds vs. Red Sox prediction and pick
On the surface it doesn’t look like Sale is having a great year, but in reality there are only two teams that have beaten up on him. The Baltimore Orioles have scored 12 runs on him in eight innings and the Tampa Bay Rays knocked him around for six runs in four innings.
In his other seven starts he has allowed just twelve runs and has been his normal dominant self. The Red Sox are 7-3 when Sale takes the mound.
Hunter Greene is the pitcher in this matchup actually having the rough season. While he does have 80 strikeouts in 56 innings he also has 22 walks, has given up eight home runs, and has a 1.375 WHIP. In his last outing he went six scoreless innings and had 11 strikeouts against the Cubs.
Greene has an expected ERA of 3.76 this season and his turnaround might be coming after a great start last time out, but I feel better trusting Chris Sale as long as he’s not facing the Orioles or the Rays.
Outside of the AL East back Chris Sale and you’ll often make money, so that’s what I’ll do today.
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